The Running Of The Bulltards

4/30/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 16:24:43 GMT

The SPY pulled into the 8 ema at the open and has so far bounced off it perfectly. We had 1 strong reaction to earnings yesterday from Google, 1 flat reaction from Amazon and 2 bad ones from Microsoft and Meta. Overall nothing crazy as heading into the print Google was strong all year while Meta and Microsoft were lagging year to date. More importantly, so far into month end we’re holding this 8 ema, again, and until we lose it, this is just a clean short term uptrend. The 21 ema is almost over 700 as it catches up. The only thing that could derail us right now is potentially restarting the war with Iran which is apparently on the table. We will have to see what comes of that the next few days but right now the market is brushing off high oil because the AI trade is in full swing after yesterday’s reports. The VIX being down almost 8% right now is another sign things are not scaring anyone at the moment with us pretty much at all time highs.

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What a monster session yesterday was, 10 names I flagged were up over 10% today and 20 names were up over 5% less than 24 hours later.

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4/29/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 16:15:22 GMT

The SPY continues to flag over the 8 ema here as we approach the moment of truth. We have Jerome Powell’s last FOMC today and earnings from 4 megacaps. Honestly for the moment things look good, we’re consolidating nicely almost 2 weeks sideways, the 8 ema has caught up and if things don’t go well today that 21 ema right below 700 would have to hold or we’d have major issues.

I think all the megacaps will report well the only thing I could see derailing the names is maybe a massive capex increase the market hates? Other than the numbers and guidance should be good. Let’s see what happens tomorrow but if you’re uncomfortable with where we are, taking some chips off here before such a big day is never a bad move. We just got news moments ago that we’re preparing for more strikes on Iran. The VIX did not like that and is back over 20 which and oil is up over 6%, not good. Something was weird the last 2 sessions, the market is not supposed to keep going up with oil and vix rising, something had to give. This is an interesting moment because Trump has said in the past when the market is high it gives him room to do things that may make it go lower and when we’re at lows he always saves it. So now with us at highs he can start bombing again and the minute oil gets too messy for him he can just do another ceasefire and oil falls 20% in a session like last time. He literally is in the drivers seat of this entire market.

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4/28/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:25:01 GMT

The SPY gapped down on the overnight report from the Wall St Journal about OpenAI missing their revenue estimates and possibly being unable to fulfill their obligations. Big names like NVDA and ORCL got hit hard. I think its all nonsense, and we needed an excuse to cool off. Look at what I highlighted below, if close over the 8 ema(dark blue) today, that is 20 straight sessions on the SPY. This has been an incredible run. We are extended and have needed to cool off but it all still hinges on tomorrow with FOMC and then 30% of the market reporting. If we get some warnings or guide downs tomorrow, then I will worry, until then this is a routine pullback to the 8 ema. We’ve had a really frothy month, semis are up 40%, countless companies that are relatively junk are up 50-100% or more in a few weeks. It’s ok if some of these names have sharp corrections but this is still a very clearly defined uptrend on the overall market with a 21 ema sloping up at 693.50 right now.

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4/27/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 16:19:10 GMT

The SPY is forming an inside day right now, we’re in a nice bull flag here, still riding above the 8 ema and in an uptrend. We’re a little overbought right now, but we have been for nearly 2 weeks, this week is really all about the megacaps, 5 of them report and considering the fact they’re 1/3rd of the market, how they react will dictate our next move but as long as we’re over the 21 ema, that light blue line below, things are fine. I expect we will be mostly flat into wednesday as there is just nothing before all those big reports short of Trump restarting the war or something. Don’t overthink things, we are either in an uptrend or a downtrend in the market as we go above or below the 21 ema. We’ve been in a new uptrend for the last 3 weeks from the day we got back over the 21 ema on the ceasefire, until that changes there is no reason to be bearish.

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4/26/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

James Bulltard — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 10:49:47 GMT

The SPY just had its highest weekly close ever, nothing bearish about that. The issue for me now is look at the last year, historically speaking, we do not get this extended from the 8 week(dark blue) for too long so I would expect some sort of sideways/down period while this key moving averages catches up. We have megacap reports this week with 4 major ones on wednesday. Let’s see how that all goes but we don’t often stay 5% above the 8 week. Things are looking great here, I don’t know why everyone goes and gets bearish at highs, new highs are bullish, the time to worry is when markets actually break down below the 21, not up here.

This weeks best idea is a name had 6 odd trades I flagged this past week. It’s an energy services play and funny enough the OIH is at highs even with the XLE over 10% off highs.

OIH

XLE

So there is some serious relative strength in energy services and I always like to focus on what is being bought. We’re going to take a look at this name and a couple different ways to potentially play it with some conservative and aggressive trades.

4/24/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 24 Apr 2026 16:05:06 GMT

The SPY continues to consolidate flagging for 6 days now as the 8 ema has finally caught up. We touched it yesterday and bounced but the move was so sharp that the 21 ema is still over $20 lower. We just need time that’s all. The semi trade continues to carry the market while we await whatever the President decides to do with Iran over the weekend. Next week we’ve got most of the megacaps reporting and we will have alot more clarity on what’s next after that. Will we see capex increases? Will anyone surprise cut? Lots can change in a week.

As for what I’m sure many of you want to hear, Intel, let’s talk about today’s massive move. It is up 22% right now and breaking out of a monster 26 year base going back to the year 2000. We’ve all heard the p/e ratios, how far behind they are, etc and sure enough it didn’t matter. The stock is up 100% in the last month, the lows were 41 in the war selloff and looking at the database going back to January 1, it has a score that is nearly 2x the next biggest name, Amazon.

So when people ask me why I was all in, it was because I’d never seen a divergence like this in my data and I knew Intel was going much higher because if I don’t trust my own data, why should you? This isn’t my portfolio, I have a big book full of all the same boring stuff the rest of you do, this is my trading book you see here everyday and if I’m not confident enough to take a massive risk reversal and swing at a trade like this, then I’m wasting my time. This is why I tell you to separate your investments from your trades, you need to be able to freely think about trades without fear.

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4/23/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:10:58 GMT

The SPY is trying to emerge from this flag its been in for 5 day. The 8 ema is over 700 now and the 21 ema is racing to catch up. Things are looking great as we’ve quietly put the war on the backburner. We need things to stay this way and the market has told you for 3 weeks the war was over, the day we crossed that 200 day below with that that huge gap up. Even economic data hasn’t really mattered recently as the whole trade was just one big catchup after the 45 days of panic. I’d like to see that yellow line, the 50 day start to curl up soon to really confirm things but this rally is only 12 days old so it needs time. Price action is truth is what the chart below should tell you because we lingered under that 21 ema on the SPY from the time the war began, the day the ceasefire hit was the first day we turned on the otherside of it and we never looked back. I always tell you that’s the best barometer in the market and with this conflict it literally told you when it was over. These rallies lock out so many because so many think news is important, the chart is the chart, it doesn’t lie to you and its been 12 days since we touched the 8 ema that is an incredibly powerful rally but for the second straight down some caution flags are flashing with VIX up and oil up.

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4/22/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 16:13:44 GMT

The SPY is flagging as the moving averages race higher. This is healthy action after a big move up like we had. I’d like to see us actually touch the 8 ema in the next 2-3 sessions and see us bounce of it and push higher. Today is our first megacap report with Tesla after the bell. Things are mostly looking good now. We got another extension on the ceasefire today of 3-5 days from Trump and for the time being the market is pricing in an end to this conflict with the vix at 19 now. Right now you’re seeing alot of the small cap names ripping hard which is not what you’d see in an environment where people were worried about the war restarting.

One caution flag is the fact RSP is red and that means breadth is just not there as only tech is flying. The equal weight is not partaking today. Some of these tech moves the last week have been insane but its notable that RSP would be red when the Nasdaq is up over 300.

I also wanted to discuss a point with the data I log, and I honestly should be better about this because its pretty rare but look at something like NVTS. I highlighted this one last friday here.

It was sub $12 and saw a really weird call bought well over 100% OTM with the $27 calls in January bought for $1.30. NVTS is now up to $17.20 today and those January $27 calls are up nearly 4x in 5 days. For a long term trade, that is insane. The point here is you don’t see trades like that often, another one if you look in the database is VIAV and on 1/15 I flagged some December $35 calls with the stock at $17, sure enough here we are 3 months later and VIAV is $43.73. So just something to keep in the back of your head along with biotech put sales/risk reversals is that when you see a small cap name with some very far OTM calls being bought, you want to get long some commons or throw on a risk reversal because its rare to see and works out very well often.

Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Flow

Today was a big session, 10% of the names I flagged yesterday, 18 of 182, were up over 4% today. This is one of the more remarkable sessions I remember seeing in recent memory with 6 of the names going for double digits the next day.

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4/21/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 15:36:57 GMT

The SPY continues to flag way over the 8 ema as the market awaits tomorrow’s ultimatum deadline. The vix remains sub 20 so not alot of fear going into this event. It feels like the market has moved on from the war but I don’t want to say that because if we do restart the war we likely will get very ugly again. For now the most important thing to me is you can see the 50 day(yellow) and the 200 day(green) flattening out and not forming the death cross that seemed imminent 3 weeks ago. We made such a sharp move higher which averted a major technical breakdown. There isn’t much to say here we still have alot of room down where even on a scare tomorrow if we move down to 690 by friday we’re still over the 21 ema and in good shape for a continued move higher.

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4/20/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:05:06 GMT

The SPY is just having an inside day, nothing crazy when you’re extended like this. As you can see we’re at max overbought RSI and the 21 ema is way down below at 680. Anytime you’re over the 21 ema you’re in an uptrend but now we’ve still got to contend with whatever comes of the next 2 days and whether Trump makes a deal with Iran or we start bombing Wednesday night. He just spoke and said he won’t extend the ceasefire so it looks like this is it, the market doesn’t seem too concerned with the vix still under 20 but I think for now you have to be somewhat conservative and not put on new positions until we pass this deadline. If we fell 3% from here we’d still not touch the 21 ema as it sits at 680. Selling puts on the SPY down at 680 should be ok for this week as that 21 ema should hold and if it doesn’t you have a very defined risk closing on a move below it. I think a better trade would be selling puts a couple weeks out into that gap at 660 because that is where you want to go long on a gap fill should we get it. If we don’t you pocket the premium and move on.

I want to talk about this service and what I’m trying to accomplish with my spin on data. Yesterday someone tagged me in a post joking about me finding crime before the SEC and it was showing my rankings table in the database from some date in April until now. I just went in and pulled up the rankings from April 1 to now, premarket, and here are the results.

What you will notice is INTC is far and away the top name since April began which is why my entire book is skewed towards it and it didn’t disappoint, it just made a 70% move in 2.5 weeks. Look at the names behind it, most outperformed the market by a good bit in this recent rally. The intriguing part to me is the small caps like AXTI or NOK which caught massive moves this month or even something like NBIS had a monster move or MRVL which isn’t the most well known name is in 3rd place and sure enough this morning flying on a deal with GOOG but that too is up over 60% this month. That chart above should end you ever reading one of these deep dives everyone seems to love to write up, none of that matters, all that matters is the flow of money. Follow that and you will do well.

The point I’m trying to make is my spin on data is different from what anyone else does. I’m not trying to be like anyone else, I manually curate this database, it doesn’t include every single trade. This is all what crosses my scans and I built this originally for myself, used it for years, before sharing it here 4 years ago. I have my parameters I search for and the rankings are ranking my filters. You’ll see 300 lots and 100,000 lots in the same set of data because I don’t have a simple set of rules I search for. These other options services give you way too much data in my opinion. You don’t need every trade, notional value, etc. My objective is to simply see what names are seeing unusual sized bullish activity so I can position myself in them. 1 trade and its value is irrelevant to me, its about repeat activity in names and directional bias I can derive from it. So when you look at my data, use the rankings to position yourself in the right names because those are the ones being bought hard. At the end of the day there are many different ways to trade this data, but being in the right names at the right time is the number one key to success in the market. You also have my community discord with 2300 people to bounce ideas with, use it, its one of the best resources you’ll ever find in terms of others looking at the same data and how to trade it.

Top 10 Gainers From Friday’s Flow

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4/19/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

James Bulltard — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 10:51:12 GMT

The SPY just broke the 50 week and hit new all time highs 3 weeks later. For some context, it took 27 weeks to do that during the covid crash and even on a smaller event like last years tariff crisis it took 16 weeks, so are in the midst of a legendary comeback for markets. It just shows the appetite from investors to be long into this AI boom when the markets somewhat normalize with war fears subsiding. There is nothing bearish about new all time highs and now you have levels below to play off of should we see some sort of escalation in the war again. Now its time to see if earnings and the big meeting Trump has coming up with Xi can deliver.

This week’s best idea is a SECTOR that could run very hard as it still sits nearly 40% below all time highs which in this market is very rare. This has a big catalyst coming up that could really kickstart a run over the coming weeks. We’re gonna look at the recent option flow and some various trade ideas including a ratio that can pay out enormously should this really move

4/17/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:47:50 GMT

The SPY continues to make new highs, this is an all time move unfolding. Today it was on rumors the war may actually be over as we may pay Iran $20B for their uranium. The meeting in Pakistan this weekend should reveal alot more but $20B seems like a trivial amount of money for not letting a terrorist regime have nuclear weapons. For reference NVDA made over $40b last quarter alone. Whatever it is, oil is falling for now, the VIX is dropping and we continue to extend further away from the 200 day. We need to cool off somewhere and let these moving averages catch up, this is the index, not a penny stock, moves like this are not commonplace. Look at the RSI we went from max oversold to max overbought in 2.5 weeks. This is all good news, I just wouldn’t be putting on new positions here until the moving averages catch up.

Look at something like MEOH that I wrote up last weekend, now that the war may be over that is killed down 9% today. Here is the thing with that big trade last week, that player executed it for $0 if you remember they sold puts at 45 and 40 while using the proceeds to buy calls. A trade like that highlights what I try to show you everyday that every trade you place needs to be for free or a credit because in the event you’re wrong, every stock is a buy at some level and in the case of MEOH it was 48 before the war, buying 1.5M shares at 45 and 40 would be nice for that player so while -9% looks bad today, it isn’t that bad because it would need to fall another 15%+ for that person to take assignment. Once you understand why its so important to make every trade in your favor, you will see the market in a new light. Being wrong and not losing a ton of money is a lifehack.

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4/16/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:24:53 GMT

The SPY is at new all time highs, if you’re bearish, stop. Are we extended? Sure, but there is nothing bearish about new all time highs. We have earnings season really kicking off now with Netflix this afternoon and that starts the flurry of tech names reporting the next few sessions. This is an all time move just like last April when Trump pivoted, we’re up 12% in 14 sessions off the lows. There isn’t much to say here other than we’re clearly in a new uptrend, we’ve been in one for 7 sessions now, and fighting it is futile. The next time we lose the 21 ema get as bearish as you want but right now that is way down at 675. We’re reaching max overbought levels here so don’t overdo it, we need to consolidate a bit and not be so extended from the moving averages.

Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Recap

AXTI with a nutty move today, I was not expecting a 22% move when I highlighted all those calls I saw yesterday but sometimes that’s how the game goes, congrats if you played that.

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4/15/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:18:43 GMT

The SPY is basically back to all time highs in 6 sessions since the ceasefire. Incredible really, the whole move down was due to the war and we fully reversed it with a pause, lets all hope we do not restart this conflict when the deadline passes. We’re a bit extended here as the 21 ema is barely over 670 but with earnings season kicking off we’re a powederkeg that can go much higher if we can press over 697.84 and build above it. We need to go sideways a bit and let these moving averages catch up, going up 5% in 6 sessions is a bit overdone.

I don’t know the bear case right now other than war coming back, the megacaps comprising the bulk of the market are all printing money at obscene clips and I think that’s where people get markets wrong. The market isn’t the economy and the real economy can be struggling but if 40% of the market is the 7 megacaps and things are operationally going well there, the market can go much higher and that is the case right now. Study this chart below and burn it into your brain how weak markets sometimes get under the 21 ema and why I use that as my barometer. Yes 90% of moves under the 21 are reclaimed quickly, but 10% lead to prolonged moves down and if you’re disciplined you can literally just go to cash under the 21 ema and everytime we reclaim it go long again. Look at how we capped over the 21 ema on the ceasefire last week and its been 6 days of sustained run since so the point is you miss very little on the overall market if you’re disciplined. With individual names its tougher because you have things like Intel that rallied 60% in 2 weeks but for the overall market, discipline won’t hurt you too much, you missed a 2% move up to get confirmation of a new uptrend last week.

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4/14/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:04:59 GMT

The SPY continues its move back to near all time highs with us just now 1% away. The Mag7 names really caught a bid today. This move has been beautiful since the ceasefire as we reclaimed the 200 day and have now had 5 straight moves higher and really right where we needed to. If you look at the 50 day(yellow) and the 200 day(green) I said a week back we needed a very fast move up to potentially avoid a death cross there and it seems we may get it with another few strong sessions as the 50 day is slowly turning. The way oil and the vix are acting, the fears of war ramping back up in the middle east are non existent right now and we are fully focused on earnings season for the moment. Will this change by his new April 27th deadline? Maybe but that is 2 weeks out and for now the market does not care. We are a little extended here over 3% away from the 21 ema but it will catch up in a couple days.

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4/13/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:04:03 GMT

The SPY gapped down below the 100 and so far has been bought up this session. We are seeing the vix now below 20 for the first time since the war began, this was over 30 for a good portion of March. Oil is rising but something notable is many oil names not rising over even the 8 ema and you have a market that is beginning to slowly ignore Trump’s threats of escalation. We also got news China would like a deal made without more fighting. If we close today over the 100 day that would be a great sign as we would still be over all moving averages with the 8 and 21 sloping up to catch up. These are uptrend moves until we lose that 21 again.

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4/12/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

James Bulltard — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 10:38:12 GMT

The SPY just closed back over the 21 week for the first time since we broke it when the war began. Look at this uptrend we were in from the pivot on tariffs last April and how we broke that light blue line when this war began and now we’re starting a new uptrend. The question is will it last? It seems like negotiations on Pakistan are not going well this weekend as reports show us at an impasse, will we work through it? I hope so, but with these things nobody really ever knows, for the moment, the charts are bullish because people are speculating we are done with the war but if we end up going back into Iran, this will have been a massive headfake. The good news is right now you have your line in the sand and you can press things but if we fall back below that 21 week you can just move aside again.

This week’s best idea is a sub $5B chemical name that saw a massive risk reversal placed yesterday afternoon and we’re going to take a look. They put this trade on for exactly $0 and when someone is looking to take on nearly $150m of stock on a name this small while using the premium to swing at calls, you want to take note.

4/10/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:58:57 GMT

The SPY is back over all the moving averages as we discussed yesterday and has 2 options here, either we press up very quickly from here and avert the 50/200 cross coming in the next 2 weeks or we form a lower high here and reverse lower but right now as long as we’re over the 21 ema we are in a new uptrend. How long it lasts, we shall see we still have the ceasefire deadline looming in less than 2 weeks, I’d imagine restarting the war, spiking oil, etc would not be taken well by equities. So lots of risk still even though for the moment things look good. From the sounds of Trump he wants to move on from this war now but its really not his call, if Iran doesn’t play nice with Hormuz, then Donald has to do something or look weak and we know he won’t let himself look weak. So lots left to unfold in the coming few sessions and earnings season kicks off next week.

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4/9/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 09 Apr 2026 16:24:48 GMT

The SPY is bouncing right off the 50 day now for the 2nd straight day and now pushing through the 100 day to clear all the moving averages. This is the issue with trying to be bearish with Trump in office, he’s the most stock focused President we’ve ever had and just like last year when he sent the market up 10% in 1 session on his tariff pause he just saved the market today by apparently calling Netanyahu and telling him to stop the attacks. The market looks great now, once you’re over all the moving averages you’re in the clear, obviously the deadline still looms but 2 days ago we were in a bad spot under the 200 day, under the 21 ema because Trump was threatening to end Iranian civilization and 48 hours later he’s backed off and we’re back to normal. He’s a very tough guy to try and fade because he always seems to pivot to doing what equities need right when they need it done. We need the 8 and 21 ema to catch up, we need a little sideways move and once we bounce off these moving averages we can push higher. The 2 week ceasefire is our chance to let all that happen digesting yesterday’s big move, hopefully we end this and do not escalate things. Other than that we have the tiny issue of oil rising 8% today which says we may not be done with the middle east conflict although it does seem like Trump may be over this.

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4/8/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 16:08:37 GMT

The SPY had a monster gap up on the 2 week ceasefire we announced. Look at us reclaimed the 200 day along with the 21 ema for the first time since the war began. From a technical perspective we’re finally in the clear, a new uptrend is here. You now have your level to stay long off and if we break that 21 ema that’s when you cut things. This is a good first step in starting a new uptrend but right now we’re hammering ontop of the 50 day but its still early in the session. It’s day 1, you’re not going to clear all the moving averages immediately and lots of people are going to be selling into this but this is substantial progress. We needed a really sharp move ASAP to hopefully avoid that 50/200 death cross that was maybe a 7 sessions away, now if we can build here we can possibly avoid it. Oil has been bid up all morning off the lows as well signaling some don’t think this is over.

Personally, I don’t think this whole situation is over, hopefully the worst of it is, but this is a small break to try and get a deal done. We’ve been working on a deal for over a month and don’t have one. It seems like Israel and Iran are already back to attacking each other after the ceasefire. This situation remains a colossal mess and frankly I don’t see how we accept the terms Iran offered. For starters they are trolling Trump all over Twitter which you know he hates. Then we’re getting news now that Iran will back out of this ceasefire if Israel doesn’t stop attacking Lebanon and Trump said that isn’t part of the deal. There are question marks galore. I get Trump wants to get out of this mess we’re in but Iran is now claiming they get billions in tolls on Hormuz, they get to keep their uranium and they want all US forces out of the region. The uranium was literally our 1 objective going into this. If we really agree to those terms, that is a big loss for the US. I can’t see Trump really doing that but who knows maybe he wants this war to be over with as we inch closer to midterms and can claim a small victory saying we set them back. Look how stocks reacted today, the market wasn’t a fan of the war. Hopefully, we can all come to a resolution in the 2 week timeframe but for now I don’t think we’re even close. In an ideal world we base here for 2 weeks, let the moving averages catch up, and hammer out an agreement in that timeframe before we make the next move higher. If this all falls apart in 2 weeks and we attack them, we will go lower.

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