The Running Of The Bulltards

7/29/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:10:55 GMT

The SPY continues to build under the 50 day with our 5th straight sessions potentially closing below there today. We also have oil spiking 7.5% right now as Trump flushed the market this morning with his commentary on hitting Iran really hard now. He is changing his mind near daily at this point and the market hates the uncertainty. Korea also sank 6% last night following an 11% drop the night before. Korea has become a disaster for us with their nightly margin calls and Kospi losing 50% in a month. Alot can change this afternoon, we have a big FOMC coming up and an interest rate decision along with big earnings from Microsoft,Meta, ARM, Lam Research, and Qualcomm after the bell. These offer potential hope in stopping the semi bleeding. Someone or multiple here could very well surprise and raise guidance beyond estimates and excite the segment of the market that seems to be giving up on the long term thesis at the moment.

The SMH, below, continues to be where most of the pain lies. Today it appears it may have its first close below the 100 day since March and even that was short lived with just 2 closes below there. Nvidia is losing the 200 day for the first time in months today and that is the largest component here, the breakdown here has been epic with the Kospi. Until the Korean market can get some footing, our semis are not going to be able to settle down. This needs a reversal soon or it is heading for that 200 day way lower at 450.

Scanner

Here are the top momentum scans from the database, the rest of the mid and small caps along with all the other scans are available in the database below by clicking on the scanner tab.

My Open Book

7/28/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 28 Jul 2026 15:53:20 GMT

The SPY continues to build under the 50 day as the Korean market imploded overnight again sinking 11% which led to another round of margin calls and a violent reaction here. The RSP is actually up 1% today, outside of semis, the market is completely fine but there is a vicious unwind happening in the ai trade at this moment as that is where all the momentum traders are heavily using leverage and the snowball lower unfolds. Tomorrow we have FOMC and rumors of a potential rate hike occurring just a day after Trump spoke telling us how rates need to be lowered. Lots of uncertainty in the market right now between the Iran war, the semi implosion, and the fed. When uncertainty exists, markets throw tantrums.

The SMH is taking it on the chin, it is down from 671 to 522 in in a month and half. Do I think we’re actually in a bubble? No, not even close, we might be in a couple years, but for right now we’re in the middle of the biggest buildout in human history and we won’t know whether all this investment has a payoff or not until a few years pass. Right now we’re in the middle of one massive levered long unwind as the korean traders are getting margin called left and right in one of the biggest margin calls a society has ever seen. Their KOSPI is down 30% in a month and it is really pressuring us here. The SMH is on the 100 day right now, it really needs to hold here, so many of these names are down 30-50% in a month while business is actually going very well. It just shows you how little fundamentals truly matter and how sentiment and technicals really drive everything.

The reality of this market is just simply the fact that leverage works both ways. We were very overdone to the upside and now we’re getting really overdone to the downside but because of how much leverage is in the system you’re getting faster and more violent moves than we’ve ever seen historically. The same happened last year with the tariff tantrum and how quickly the market crumbled. This is a dynamic we’re going to be dealing with for a very long time. I do think we’re closer to the end of the pain than a full blown crash. Korea has been imploding for over a month now and I think alot of these names that are down in the panic are actually not bad buys if you have a long term horizon. The ai trade still has a long runway.

Scanner

Here are the large caps the scanner in the database pulled as showing strength. You’re finally seeing some tech name like SHOP and SPOT. HPQ was one I highlighted yesterday in the recap as well.

If you click on the backtest tab there you will see a histogram with some data. Obviously from the time I rolled this out the market has been pretty hideous but this will keep track of how well these names are doing. You will see over time, in better times, the win rate will materially improve but this is just more about transparency and showing the results of the scans.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/27/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 27 Jul 2026 16:12:43 GMT

The SPY is actually green today while tech is getting hit hard. This remains under the 50 day which is not good but we’re pressing up against it and trying to recover possibly today. We have a big FOMC this week, some megacap earnings, and we had our umpteenth temporary ceasefire in the Iran war this weekend which sent oil spiraling lower. That massive block of XLE puts I highlighted friday paid off big time just 1 session later and it should be clear to anyone watching at this point that this war is always dialed back the minute oil prices start to get out of hand. The technical picture here is not the best, but most of the damage remains contained to the semi trade and not much else.

The SMH is now down 4.5% and approaching the 100 day as it continues this downtrend it has been in. Nvidia is leading the way down over 5% today. Semis and the ai trade are unwinding hard and now bulls really need that 100 day just below at 521.46 today and rising to hold. If that can’t support this, then the door is open to the 200 day way down at 450. Semis need a surprise capex boost from the megacaps reporting this week, that could save them, but any inline capex spend and this is probably going to get even uglier. Look these can’t be the only trade all year, the move they made from April to June was legendary and now there’s a cooling off for a bit. The SMH was 359 at the lows of the war in March, its 538 right now, so yes this is painful but these are up so much over the last 3 months even still.

Scanner

Here are the large caps the database scanner flagged for momentum, the rest of the mid and small caps along with the rest of today’s scans can be found in the database link below. This isn’t good for the general market when the scans of strength include JNJ,ALL,TRV,CB, and MO. Those are all very defensive names. You’re not seeing any tech names in these scans and that should tell you where you should be focusing for the moment in this period of weakness.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/24/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 24 Jul 2026 15:57:02 GMT

The SPY is green today but starting to build under the 50 day with a long weekend ahead of us bombing Iran. There is a massive buildup right now of forces in the region and although we’ve attacked for 2 weeks straight, the consensus is this weekend will be the big attack. Trump has less than 4 months till midterms, he almost has to bomb them into submission ASAP if he has any prayer of getting oil to fall fast enough to matter at the pump for voters. Will it work? Who knows but the chart here remains very broken. If you’re looking for bullish optimism, the vix isn’t soaring and oil is red today. You could also argue for now that we are putting in a higher low vs the late June lows we saw. You’re not going to miss much waiting until we reclaim the 50 day overhead because if we don’t we could have a large rollover towards that 100 day just under 720. I still think the environment is just not a good one for calls shorter than 3 months out until we’re back over the 50 day at 745.14 right now.

Tech stocks really remain the issue with the QQQ, below, closing in on the 100 day with it now being less than 3% away. This has been a very nasty unwind in the ai trade over the last 2 months and you have some huge reports next week that will make or break this one.

Here is the thing to remember, there is a whole world outside tech. The RSP, below, is just 1% away from highs. This is the equal weight index and it is breaking a downtrend today. I know everyone is mostly always in tech and that usually is the right move because tech leads the majority of the time but occasionally other sectors lead and right now tech is the laggard and it’s very visible in the equal weight index where it is is higher now than it was in early June while the Nasdaq is down 10% from the start of June.

Scanner

These are the large cap names that came up in my momentum scan, as always the rest of the names and various scans are searchable in the database by clicking the scanner tab.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/23/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 23 Jul 2026 16:07:43 GMT

The SPY finally broke down again. 4 lower highs and repeat tests of the 50 day were sending warning signs and today we got the followthrough after big moves down from Google and Tesla. Oil rising 30% this month is not helping things as it seems like Trump has lost control of the Iran situation despite all we’re told. Oil has quickly risen from 70 to 90+ in under a month and yields are soaring as well. We’ve been in a downtrend for nearly 2 months now, again the arrows on the chart tell the story. We have a mess everywhere seemingly at the moment. As for yesterday, I know on the surface the Google numbers were good, the EPS gain was due to a 1 time SPCX gain which will be a big loss next quarter. The bad news with Google was search missed and I think that’s why you’re seeing the big selloff, not the capex everyone cites. When your main business misses and it has chatgpt and claude becoming default search engines for more people daily, you have a major problem and earnings don’t really do much to save that. You could be looking at the start of a terminal decline which was always the reason why Google traded “cheap” the risk of something else emerging always existed and it seems like for the moment that threat is here. Other than that cloud numbers were amazing, up 80% is so impressive, but Google remains a search business and missing on search is not what investors wanted. Having Tesla down 13% too as a top 10 sized company is not helping things but Tesla has always had terrible numbers, I’m not sure why investors finally cared today but if valuation is going to be a thing for Tesla finally, it can go much lower.

Scanner

Here are today’s large cap scans, as always the rest of the mid and small caps along with countless other scans can be found in the database by clicking the canner tab.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/22/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 22 Jul 2026 16:00:17 GMT

The SPY continues to look good over all the key moving averages but it is also 1% away from losing the 50 day. This is because we’ve gone nowhere in months and now all the moving averages are bunched together and we’re going to make a big move in a direction soon. Fittingly all this happens as megacap earnings kick off today with Google and Tesla. The arrows are showing what concerns me, we’re on our 4th set of lower highs, that isn’t bullish. We need to break this trend as soon as we can or we’re looking at rolling over and heading towards that white line, the 100 day. Tech stocks continue to be the issue with the QQQ below the 50 day for 5 straight sessions. You never want to see building underneath a big moving average like that but again Google or Tesla can change all of that with their reports. The rest of the mag 7 ex Nvidia report next week.

Scanner

These are the large caps that came up in the scanner today, as always you can see the rest of the mid and small caps along with all the other scans in the database. I see lots of defensives in MO,UNH, SJM and also some energy in MPC,PSX. Be careful out there, it is never a good thing for the overall market when these are the strong charts.

My Open Book

7/21/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:59:09 GMT

The SPY is back up over all the key moving averages right now but we’ll have to see where we close the session but right now things look great. Yesterday was looking bleak at the close, we had a second close under the 50 day, all the major names were weak and we gapped right back up this morning. This market is really punishing those who manage risk and cut where they’re supposed to. We have our first major earnings tomorrow with Texas Instruments and Google reporting, their guides will have a major impact on the AI trade and then Intel thursday will be a big one. So lots of things to unpack this week regarding the major trade in the market and until we hear from these companies there isn’t much to do.

Scanner

These were the only large caps that came up in my scanner today. All the new scans are in the database by 11 est everyday.

My Open Book

7/20/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 20 Jul 2026 15:47:30 GMT

The SPY gapped back up over the 50 day after its second close below it in 4 months. These breakdowns are turning into headfakes nearly every single time as we got news yesterday that kimi was having to turn down new users because of lack of compute which regignited the same semi trade that it killed last week. Very tough market with all the back and forth headlines but right now we’re below the 21 ema and sitting on the 50 day, the bulls need a strong bounce here and it is likely going to depend on big earnings reports this week from names like Google and Intel giving strong guides and calming all the fears around the AI trade. As for the Iran war, another weekend of us striking them and everyone preparing for a war followed by Rubio this morning saying they want to make a deal and oil selling off. At this point it is pretty clear that whenever the government wants oil lower, and it does into midterms, it can just pull out the potential deal talk and flush it at will.

Scanner

These are the large cap names the scanner is picking up, the mid and small cap names are in the database link below

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/17/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 17 Jul 2026 16:01:19 GMT

The SPY gapped down under the 50 day this morning giving us a real warning sign. This is our 2nd move under the 50 day in the past month and while we’re clawing back the move so far, a close under 744.41 today would not be ideal.

China basically fired missiles at us yesterday with the Kimi news. It’s not a secret that we’ve been at war with China for decades and now they have thrown a wrench in our ai leadership, potentially. I personally don’t see it as that, everyone panicked when Deepseek came out and as we usually come to find out, the threat is nowhere near what the panic would have you believe. We know they distill our models and if anything this is going to force Trump to ramp the investments, restrictions, etc because we cannot let China win the ai war. So while everyone is focused on does this mean capex can be cut with China allegedly spending so much less, I think the opposite happens and we will need to ramp our efforts. If you’re on the fence about short term positions say less than 3 months to go, you would not want to be long a close under the 50 day. Will we be fine by say November, probably, but this is a 3rd lower high and that is not a good technical look. Megacap earnings to begin next week and alot can change with that. For now, until we get more clarity, the panic is unfolding. It’s hard to say this wasn’t visible in charts when the SMH was under the 50 day and breaking down hard the last few sessions. As you can see below it is nearing that 100 day moving average and needs to hold there or this can get materially uglier.

Scanner

These are the top 12 large caps on the scanner

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/16/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 16 Jul 2026 16:02:30 GMT

The SPY believe it or not is still trending just fine, all the pain is contained to the semis and memory trade which unfortunately is where most people are levered long. If you zoom up, most everything else is doing ok but Korea continues to implode every other day with the Kospi nearly down double digits last night. The chaos unfolding in semis is probably overdone, but that doesn’t matter because the sellers are unloading and causing a doom spiral. I do think in the next 2-3 weeks you’re going to hear of increased capex and semis will be fine, but for now, the levered players are getting shaken out.

The SMH, below, is now clearly well below the 50 day, this is a breakdown, you do not add anything here until you see some semblance of a bottom with a bounce over the 50 day at a minimum. Fundamentally these names are sold out, they’re inexpensive, and honestly I don’t even think they’re cyclical anymore as this ai spend is permanent at this point, but that doesn’t matter because for now, these are in the doghouse. The charts are showing you buying and selling and this chart is alot of selling with no buying at the moment.

Scanner

I’m going to start posting some of the top large cap scans here everyday for you just for those who don’t spend time in the database, again there’s countless things to scan for in the database but these are the names that are large caps and screen well. How you trade them is up to you but these meet multiple parameters I look for when scanning for strength

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/15/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:05:55 GMT

The SPY continues to trend up, there’s a clear rotation going on under the surface where money is flowing to megacap tech and out of the semis and bottlenecks. Look that trade has worked all year and you can feel the shift coming the last few days but today it is in full swing. There isn’t really much else to say about the market, the chart below shows us over the 8 ema and we’re just in a good spot now, there are always going to be pockets of weakness and semis are it for now.

Speaking of semis, look at the SMH, it had multiple tests of the 50 day recently and you know what that means, usually repeated tests lead to a failure and while the last 3 breakdowns of the 50 day day were instantly recovered, this might actually be the one where it doesn’t. At least until someone steps in a stops the bleeding with something big on an earnings call. ASML had a great report last night and that still couldn’t save the space. Look at all the tickers you’re seeing tons of underside rejections of key moving averages and there is alot of room lower to that 100 day just over 500. Oddly enough, NVDA broke out yesterday, so it seems like more of a rotation from the smaller semi names and into NVDA and other megacaps.

My Open Book

Trades I made today

7/14/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 15:55:36 GMT

The SPY tested the 8 ema again and held. Like I said yesterday, as long as we’re over the 21 ema there isn’t really much to worry about. We’re teetering on the edge of breakdown, but until we actually do lose it, you have to remain bullish. I do not like the fact we seemingly cannot make a high over the mid June levels, that remains a major caution flag with this being just another lower high but we got CPI out of the way, Warsh spoke, and bank earnings have gone well so far. Things are mostly ok and we still have Netflix reporting to kick off tech reports. We look good, we had that one scary close under the 50 day a couple weeks ago, but otherwise we’ve been back in a clean uptrend. Short of this war getting out of hand or megacaps surprising with even more capex, which is still very possible, the market looks fine.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/13/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:47:40 GMT

The SPY is still over the 8 ema, short term uptrend is intact. We have a little chaos unfolding in the middle east, nobody really knows what is happening but Trump tweeted that he has blockaded Hormuz again. Oil and the vix are up and if is history is any guide Trump will pressure Iran for a period of time until oil prices rise too much and then he will make some sort of peace deal with them. Other than that Korea had a terrible session overnight and they have had multiple recently which lead to selloffs over here. This is a dynamic we’re going to have to deal with for the forseeable future with how important many of these korean memory names now are to the market. Overall, until I see one of these moving averages below break, I’m not too concerned with much going on.

Database Updates

I got your feedback over the weekend and we now have filters for small/mid/large cap. This for instance is the mid cap names you just simply click that highlighted button and you will have what you want. So again with these names they’re not a guarantee of anything, they just simply fit multiple criteria I scan for when seeking momentum. What you did with stuff like this is up to you whether you sell puts lower into a key moving average or swing shares or whatever. The point is to show you names displaying potential based on multiple factors. The FAQ explains all the terms you see here if you you’re interested.

With other parts of it, things like a golden cross occurring is when the 50 crosses over the 200, these names all had that today. These are big momentum shifts, it doesn’t mean they have to run 17% soon, it just means that you can slowly build into them, sell puts, etc and the momentum is building.

As I said before, longer timeframes are more significant, so right now there’s only 2 large cap names doing a golden cross on the weekly charts. Note those.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

Scanner Is Live

James Bulltard — Sat, 11 Jul 2026 10:40:11 GMT

Good morning everyone. As you know over the last 2 months I’ve rolled out lots of new features to the database and this morning I’m releasing my scanner. I didn’t want to overwhelm with everything at once but I felt it was time to release a tool I used for a long time when I was more actively trading. It can help you find strong setups and names making key technical moves. I’m going to go over all the functionality in this post. You can find the scanner on the menu bar at the top of the database

First off you will see the top 5 names. Now you might be asking what I’m scanning for and I could have hid this because I know alot of these other people lacking creativity out there will instantly copy it, but I don’t even care, it’s about education and you understanding what I look for when scanning for momentum. On the FAQ page there is a glossary of all the terms you will see but basically I’m looking for 12 things and ranking names based on that.

The score reflects how many of the 12 things I look for align. I scan all market caps and you can see on the side small, mid, large. So if you want to only stick to large caps on the list, you can absolutely do that.

Below the top 5 you will see all of the names that met the criteria, you can click through to the pages of all these names and see the thesis and option flow. If I haven’t logged any unusual options activity there will be nothing. The thesis is only generated on names after I log trades. Are these guaranteed to work? Absolutely not, there are false breakouts all the time, but the key is seeing where the strength is so you can focus on it. Maybe you sell puts on these names, maybe you swing commons, buy calls, there are so many ways to trade things but being in the right name is always step 1. These are all beautiful setups.

The signals tab is going to be where you will find alot more information on what names you want to focus on. When you click it you will see multiple timeframes to choose from: daily, weekly,monthly.

With this you can have a quick filter to what names are seeing bullish crossovers, bearish crossovers, golden crosses, death crosses, etc. You can also see what names are overbought and oversold or what names are hitting new 52 week highs or lows. Obviously this is nothing groundbreaking but these are scans that are important and I’ve always used so I wanted them all inside the app so you’re not having to run scans in your brokerage and flip back and forth to this app. I want this database to be a a 1 stop shop for everything relevant to trading and now you’ve got scanners, option flow, charts, ai generated trades, and more all in one place. Trust me, I’m not done yet.

What you will see with each option is the day the crossover occurred. As you can see below the bullish crossovers are green and the bearish crossovers are red. You simply click a name and go straight to the page and see all the option flow that has been logged. Again this is all just there to help you know what names to focus on and what to avoid.

As with everything market wise, the longer the timeframe the more relevant the crossover is. A golden cross on a weekly chart is always going to be more key to a longer term move. Take INTC which was my biggest position back in March, aside from all the option flow that was coming that way you’ll notice it got a golden cross at the same time. The 50 week crossed over the 200 week, where I highlighted below, and sure enough the stock tripled in no time. Now does that happen on every golden cross, no, but it is usually a sign you’re about to see some strength in a name. If you’re seeing a golden cross and can look at the option flow I’ve logged, if the 2 overlap, you might be onto something special.

If you click weekly, you will notice that at this moment these are the weekly golden crosses the scanner has found since we began working on it a few weeks back. Some names run hard right away, some don’t. The reason these scans are important is because momentum has finally flipped into the favor of bulls, the same way a death cross tells you the bears are in control of a name.

There’s many more things I will be adding to this scanner in the coming weeks/months but I just wanted to get out a simple version for you to begin to get accustomed to before I release deeper scans. I hope you all have a great rest of your weekend and I will see you monday.

7/10/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Fri, 10 Jul 2026 15:56:30 GMT

The SPY continues along within its uptrend, this morning we pulled back and tested the 8 ema and bounced, the support from buyers is immense. The weekends are always tough with this Iran conflict because you never know what will happen and the market did sell off on the post from Trump this morning but overall I trust he won’t do anything too reckless before midterms so I’m not too concerned. Oil and the vix would be going nuts if they too believed he was about to do something big but they’re both red today. Bank earnings start next week and that will get earnings season going. I still would like to see us push over the June 16 level here and end this series of lower highs but as long as we’re over the 50 day, we’re ok.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

7/9/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Thu, 09 Jul 2026 16:07:08 GMT

The SPY came down yesterday and perfectly tested that 50 day, the yellow line, and closed back over the 21. So while things looked messy for a bit, we held right where we were supposed to and we’ve now reclaimed all the key moving averages. The war headlines shook alot of people out but again we didn’t violate any key moving averages on a close. A move over the level from 3 sessions again would be nice to see so we could invalidate the series of lower highs we’ve been in the last few weeks.

Tech stocks finally recovered today with the QQQ, below, closing under the 50 day 2 sessions in a row and then gapping up this morning. For now, we’re back in an uptrend, but what you’ll notice here is let’s say you closed 2 days ago on the close of 709.43, this morning we opened at 718.33. So you would have missed a little over 1% by being prudent and not being long under the 50 day. That’s the part of trading many miss, it isn’t about nailing every dollar of every trade, it is about ensuring you survive long enough to catch the next uptrend and by closing up trades that could go to $0 in the short term on overall market weakness, you’re ensuring your survival for what could now be a new uptrend. When a big moving average is lost, nobody knows how long we’re staying under it, go to January 2022 on the QQQ, we lost the 50 day and it was 3 months of weakness, followed by 2 weeks back over it, and then another 3 months below it. This particular time, it was just 2 days below, we were fortunate. Discipline with regards to short term trades is the only thing that will keep you from blowing up and taking huge losses. With longer term positions, they’re usually fine as you can see a 100 year chart and stocks mostly always are up and to the right over time. Key moving averages will break if you’re in a trade long enough, you just have to understand that you don’t have to press things short term, until they’re reclaimed, you really won’t miss that much I promise.

Database Changes

We have a pretty big addition coming tonight or tomorrow hopefully, but before we get to that there have been some smaller changes we released this week that I forgot to update you on.

The daily flow now updates every 20 seconds so you don’t need to constantly refresh the page. New trades show up in the three flow tables and the "Flow Signals Today" section automatically, no refresh needed. Newly-arrived rows briefly light up in green so they're easy to spot. Pauses when your tab isn't visible and resumes when you come back.
Sticky navigation bar added to every ticker page. A couple of you asked for this to make your life a little easier when you’re navigating the pages so you don’t have to scroll to the top every time. If it’s useful I’m always happy to oblige your requests.

My Open Book

7/8/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:58:39 GMT

The SPY broke back under the 21 ema today as oil rose 8% and the vix rose 12% on commentary from Trump that the war with Iran is infact nowhere near over. This whole thing has been a disaster for months, you could tell Trump opted to try and end this and focus on getting energy costs down into midterms, but the ball isn’t really in his court to make that call and Iran is forcing his hand now. Did we see this in the charts yesterday with the first break below the 50 day? I would say yes the charts have been telling you that something is very wrong with lower highs forming and key levels being lost. Most thought it was the semi carnage but it was probably a return to war which hit the high beta names just like it did in March. Now we need the SPY to hold this 740 level where the 50 day is or a bigger flush down to the 100 day below 710 is in the cards. The problem with getting too bearish due to war is Trump folds repeatedly and I don’t think any of you would be shocked if he has some ceasefire with Iran again in the coming days. He doesn’t really have time, he was begging gas station owners to lower prices at the pump recently, midterms are in 4 months and he can’t really play this game right now pushing stocks lower and oil higher into midterms would hurt his parties odds tremendously.

The QQQ, below, looks worse obviously because it lacks the energy and defensive names of the S&P. Today was the first official open under the 50 day and now you have a huge air pocket to the 100 day at 660. This is why I said yesterday you don’t have to buy right now, let this settle down, let the 50 day be reclaimed and you can focus on being part of the next uptrend. You don’t have to be part of tech stocks every single day and right now you’re basically hoping for a Trump pivot or earnings season 2 weeks out materially changing things because other than that, tech stocks are in no man’s land and can drift way lower. Semis look bidless right now and there is just a massive unwind to be had there with how overallocated the majority of people are.

My Open Book

Trades I Made Today

Database Link Till The Morning

James Bulltard — Wed, 08 Jul 2026 02:43:27 GMT

Sorry we were upgrading the server tonight and making other changes so the link from this afternoon is not working, here is one that will work until the morning, sorry again for the inconvenience

Link

7/7/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 15:52:05 GMT

The SPY is pulling back to the 8 ema today and this needs to hold or it will be a confirmed 3rd lower high. The market is actually fine outside of semis/memoroy, but with how gigalong everyone is semis/memory, the pain you’re seeing in this unwind is real. We really have nothing at this moment that can stop this bleeding until we get to megacap earnings but those don’t start for a few weeks. I imagine we will hear more of the same on how capex is rising and this was really just a rinsing of levered players in the market and not a real structural issue with semis. Everyone just happens to be very levered up into the same names so the moves down get violent when they occur.

The SMH continues to be the big drag on markets down another 5.5% today and losing the 50 day for the first time since the ceasefire in April!. The QQQ has the same chart as below because it is so heavily skewed to semis now. This is a big trend shift for semis and you’re seeing it in names that led us for months finally losing the 50 day for the first time since the ceasefire. Now the door is open to that 100 day way lower at 500. You can also see the big gap below at 400, what goes up must come down and semis in particular have been really overdone recently. I would say with these you really don’t want to buy until you see things settle down and that 50 day reclaimed.

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Trades I Made Today

7/6/26 Recap

James Bulltard — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 15:40:42 GMT

The SPY marches on above the 21 ema, this is now 4 sessions into this new uptrend we’re in. While we have yet to make new highs, this is progress. The first thing I’d like to see is us getting over the 6/15 highs, I don’t want this to turn lower and be 3rd lower high. The macd is flipping positive as well for the first time since mid May and we’re really looking quite strong. The strength in markets this year without the 6 biggest companies participating is impressive, even this recent move lower, we broke the 50 day for 1 session and instantly recovered, that is what you see in a bull market.

The big laggard last week was semis and we’re not out of the woods there, yet. The SMH, below, is still below the 21 ema even with the 4% move up today and the leader of the entire space, NVDA, continues to be very weak despite very strong fundamentals and a cheap valuation. Something just doesn’t feel right with these, but from a technical perspective, bulls would like to see the 21 ema reclaimed soon, this is going for 2 closes in a row under the 21 ema and you don’t want it to start building under that level.

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