The SPY gapped down under the 8 ema for the first time in 9 sessions today on a hot inflation print. CPI came in higher than the expect 3.6% and we’re back to discussing even more rate hikes now. CRWV had some pretty damning news come out today which rocked the entire ai spectrum. I don’t really know what to think because NVDA owns such a massive chunk of CRWV which many seem to think is structurally bankrupt. You have to believe NVDA wouldn’t waste time with such a thing but who knows anymore. Rates have been the story all year as they continue to move higher, oil is green today and over $95 as we have major issues stemming from Iran,Ukraine, and Russia at the moment. We’ve been dealing with this mess for months and I’ll be honest I really don’t see either of the wars ending anytime soon. The Russia/Ukraine side of things seems to be ramping now with strikes on oil infrastructure now and as for Iran, Trump seems to be delaying until midterms pass in 3 weeks but that seems likely to escalate to. I would venture to guess the next few months are going to be very difficult in the market if you’re buying short term premium as we continue to flip flop narratives daily.
Luckily, there are still ways to profit in flat markets and that is selling puts. Just remember every single name is a buy somewhere on a chart. The put sales I log everyday are institutions showing you where they are buyers. We’re close to having the discover tool score incoming trades and I told you it would be here likely in a week or so. The discover tool currently shows you on the default setting that the highest probability trades in the recap everyday are the put sales and I think it really is best until further notice to just focus on those because you cannot buy calls in a tape this choppy, we can’t seem to sustain any move up.
A perfect example is CRWV below down 14% today to $67. Below are all the put sales this week, notice how they’re all at $60 and lower. These are sophisticated buyers showing you where they want to long this stock like that massive 14,000 block of puts sold at 60 on 10/8 when the stock was $81.58. They sold puts at 60 and are ok taking on 1.4M shares at 60 which is still 10% lower than today. Again in 4.5 years of data you can backtest over 80% of these put sales expire worthless for a max profit.
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Here are today’s top large cap momentum scans from the database, the rest of the small and mid cap scans can be found on the database link below.
My Open Book
Trades I Made Today
