10/15/25 Recap

The SPY is back, for now. We gapped up over the 8 and 21 ema today on the big report from ASML lifting the semis. Let’s see where we close before we get all excited because we’ve already pulled back nearly 1% off the days highs. Honestly I think we’re in a chop zone which is going to fake out both bulls and bears because of the gap ups and gap downs. I think premium sellers like how my book is positioned will do best as we make crazy moves in both directions but end up mostly doing nothing into year end. Today’s move is the hard part of being disciplined, you will feel bad missing this gap up, but we had 3 straight closes below the 21 ema, once upon a time that was very bearish. Today there is so much liquidity that every microdip is instantly bought but if you assume 95% of the time we break under the 21 ema nothing ever happens then you might not have the discipline to remove your risk for the 5% of time things completely fall apart.

I still think it is the most prudent approach because yes we do mostly go up but once you go under the 21 ema you never know how long the weakness will persist, sometimes its 2 sessions like now, sometimes its February where we broke down and were weak for 2 months. When we re-enter an uptrend like now, you can just put your longs back on with a stop back below the 21 ema should it come again. Even here, if we don’t press higher and make a new high over 673.95 this could very well be a lower high and we roll back over. Tonight TSM reports which should have a huge impact on all these semi names tomorrow. Maybe it is just taking a breather but NVDA doesn’t look too hot before that which is notable. Whatever you do just listen to what the charts are telling you, they don’t lie, being cautious never hurt anybody. Trust me, the next time the market completely falls apart and you de-risk below the 21 ema you will be thankful you did so. It’s really the only way to keep yourself from being caught up in a nasty move down.

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