10/16/25 Recap

*** I’m gonna start this off with something that should be pretty obvious but I get so many emails daily that I need to address it. I WILL NEVER DM YOU IN THE COMMUNITY DISCORD UNLESS YOU DM ME FIRST. There are bots that I cannot control, just like Twitter, just like the spam calls you get everyday. There is a big business out there of scamming people on the internet and I have zero control over it because its not someone I can just ban because they’re not in the room. Clearly somehow they signed up and have access to whoever joins the community and they message them. Look there’s 2,000 people in that room and scammers go where they can make money, I don’t have the time of day to message 2000 people and have 1 on 1 conversations so be logical, with that said, just ignore the bots it isn’t me

The SPY is back in a clear uptrend for the moment, yesterday we faded hard after the recap came out, broke back below the 21 ema but recovered by the close. Today we are in the clear but we have Trump still speaking soon and OPEX looming tomorrow. The reality with Trump that wasn’t a thing under Biden is you’re always going to have to be mindful of him speaking and moving markets. While things look ok for now, I still think we’re going to have alot of panic between now and the end of the month until he either extends the China deadline or actually makes a deal with them. Other than that earnings season is kicking off and that of course is a huge catalyst but not more important than the China tariffs. With the government shutdown in place we haven’t gotten a ton of data either recently so that is why other than last friday things feel alot calmer than the normal daily panic over an economic datapoint. Right now the VIX is green and that’s always a sign of caution even if things look ok. I think this daily chaotic movement in both directions is just our reality until we get past this November 1 date.

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