10/23 Recap

We closed below the 200 day on the SPY last Friday for the first time since March. Back then it was some strong megacap reports that saved us, today it was Bill Ackman tweeting that he covered his short bonds trade that sparked the rally this morning after gap down.

The SPY is peaking its head back over the 200 day, sometimes you get bounces like this after all that OPEX gamma has expired. I wouldn’t read much into it until we see these megacaps report this week, that is our driver this week of where we’re headed and it starts with Microsoft and Google tomorrow afternoon.

The VIX is down almost 15% intraday off its highs and the TNX is putting in a bearish engulfing candle, is this it for yields? I had noted before that 50 was a big fibonacci level and we hit 49.97 and for now this doesn’t look like a good long setup, the market sure is loving this today.

Trends

The calls have really been coming in hard on things like DAL,GDX, NEE in the short term. All those TLT calls they were buying over the last week were on the money with the Ackman tweet today and the TLT reversing and being +2% right now.

1 Week