The SPY is sitting ontop of the 100 day right now for the second time since the ceasefire in April. The move down we got in September stopped right at the 100 day, if we lose this level the door is wide open for a move to the 200 day way down below 730. Next week is make or break for the market with all the megacaps outside of Nvidia reporting. Either those save the day or the market is going lower. Oil is over 102 on the December contract and the vix is now over 20. This entire week has been a mess since the QQQ broke down last week. These periods of weakness are nothing new, this year has been a complete mess since the war, we’re lower right now than we were on June 2. That hasn’t happened many times in recent history where we’re so used to markets going up, but this has been a horrible 5 months underneath the surface. This doesn’t happen often and we needed it after the euphoria we saw in some of these ai names a few months back. These periods are all about surviving and being ready for the next uptrend whenever it begins.
The SMH, below, is about to hit the 200 day for the first time since the Trump tariff breakdown the market had in April 2025. Impressive run of 18 months over the 200 day for the most important segment of the market. The speed of this move caught most off guard, 14 sessions to a 15% decline but right here if this 200 day doesn’t hold just under 520, the breakdown will become prolonged. If we can quickly bounce here, it will be just have been a shaking of the tree making weak longs panic sell.
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Here are today’s large cap momentum scans, the rest of the small and mid cap scans will be in the database link below.
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