10/29/25 Recap

The SPY opened up its 3rd candle in a row outside the bollinger bands, this is so incredibly extended right now. This is the first time all year we’ve been outside the bands and historically speaking, this is not where you want to add longs. That doesn’t mean we’re going to crash necessarily, it just means we probably need to take a breather and go sideways/down for a little but with 3 of the biggest companies in the world reporting today who knows maybe we get even more extended tomorrow. Just know this isn’t a common event and it is only happening because the biggest company in the world that makes up 10% of our market, NVDA just went up 15% in a few days. It is rare we stay this extended from too long, today we have FOMC and tomorrow we have the big meeting with Trump and Xi along with earnings from MSFT,META,GOOG today and AAPL,AMZN tomorrow. Those 5 make up a quarter of our market by weight. On the downside I’d still look for that 21 ema just over 670 to be your level to cut at if it comes, otherwise any pullback is just a cooling period.

My Open Book