10/3 Recap

The SPY bounced over the 8 ema today and was slapped down quickly. It is still holding the 21 ema but this isn’t looking pretty right now. Tomorrow morning we have NFP and honestly I think regardless of what happens tomorrow with that, I think you will see selling into the afternoon just because so many will want out before the weekend since we have no clue what is going to happen in the middle east and a potential escalation of that war. Bulls really need a bounce ASAP here and they need it before we lose the recent breakout that we’re ontop of at this moment. Bears want to see us close below the 21 ema at 564.69 right now with the SPY just $1 over that.

Look at MSFT below, it is losing the 200 day right now, the markets 2nd largest component is in complete freefall down nearly 10% in 2 weeks. This is the 3rd time it loses the 200 day since August. The level of underperformance here vs the market is astounding especially considering that this is pretty well regarded as the AI leader with its OpenAI investment and Azure business amongst other things. What is that saying about the AI trade in general when MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG the 3 largest hyperscalers are all struggling the last few months? Those are 3 of the 5 largest components in our market……

Recent Trades

OXY - I wrote this one up this past weekend as the best idea here and it is up almost 6% this week to 54.43 right now from monday’s open at 51.16. This has been running with oil which is flying today on the middle east tensions. Those put sales I noted below are now .40 from .67 for a quick 30%+ gain in 4 days. I would hold until expiry because it would be a tremendous buy down there.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database as always it will be open until the opening bell tomorrow, the rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon.