10/4 Recap

This mornings ADP number came in so bad that equities rallied. We are in a really interesting period in time where nothing that actually matters is what’s causing equities to move. Apple for instance got a downgrade this morning and it completely shrugged it off and went green because of the market. Tesla missed delivery estimates by 20,000 cars the other day and today it is up 4%. We are just bouncing around day to day on absolutely nothing at this moment and hopefully earnings coming up will change all that. First up are the banks in a couple days.

The big news today was the flush of oil on the back of this rumor of the Biden admin sending a team over to Saudi Arabia to meet with MBS. I always figured some sort of deal would occur because he was really backing himself into a corner heading into an election year with oil so high and maybe today was the market accepting that a deal may be possible because oil is down almost 5% as of now below $85 and -10% in 5 sessions. Lower oil is a win for pretty much everyone but oil bulls.

The SPY still hasn’t touched the 200 day, it’s only natural we’ve gotten this close after months that we would finally converge there. As you can see we’re also nowhere near the 8 ema, so today’s bounce was meaningless just a relief rally of sorts short term but nothing significant. If anything that 200 day needs to hold and we need to start building a base around here or we’ve got much bigger problems coming.

Trends

It’s funny last quarter Amazon did the same thing where it was the most bullish name heading into earnings season and then it did surprise to the upside, is that what is setting up here? It should be a remarkable quarter for them, I don’t see why not and relatively speaking in the world of large caps, only Google has performed better over the last 2 months. This VLY is a small cap financial that has seen 4 put buys in the last 2 days, is something brewing there? It never sees any action, but it does have alot of commercial real estate exposure. I see ConAgra and Lamb Weston showing up in the scan this week alot, those are food names that don’t often show up in here.

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Today’s Unusual Options Activity