10/7 Recap

The SPY has gone nowhere in 13 sessions, we continue to see weakness in large cap tech and a rotation to energy and chinese equities continues to unfold. Bank earnings this friday will tell us alot more about the state of the economy, what sorts of provisions they’re setting aside will give us an idea on consumer health. We also have a major hurricane set to hit Florida this Wednesday and that will have a major impact on alot of things. We remain over the 21 ema for now and that means you just cannot be bearish, yet but some bearish divergences are starting to form.

Recent Trades

GNRC - This one is going a while back to June 1st and the weekend best idea I wrote up here. At the time thesis was to put on a risk reversal into November and let hurricane season play out, these last couple weeks have really heated up and now we have this as a Cat 5 barreling into Florida this week which has led to a monster move in GNRC with it up 8.5% today. The risk reversal below has seen the puts sold go from 6.25 to .50 today while the calls at 175 have gone from 7.25 to 10.90 for a total gain of 5.75 + 3.65. As of today, you’re up $9.40/share with a month to go and your initial outlay was $1/share out of pocket. You can close these up now if you’d like or wait and see what happens post Milton, but the trade took time to unfold, basically it all happened in the last couple weeks, that’s why you have to be firm on your dates, set your trade, ideally for a credit, and stick to your guns. The scientists were off on the calls of the busiest hurricane season ever thankfully, but it still got bad enough to where Generac had a nice run and the r/r worked.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will expire tomorrow at the open. The rest of today’s trades will be added by tonight.