11/11/25 Recap

The SPY is holding up over the 8 ema even with our biggest component, NVDA, down 3.5% after Softbank sold their stake. Then unprofitable tech was hit hard after the CRWV report. Quiet session overall, it is veterans day, no bond market. RSP is green so things besides tech are working today. I don’t know where we end the session, it is early, but as long as we’re over these short term averages things are ok. I think for the most part the year is over, we still have NVDA earnings but other than that, we don’t have much left. We have 27 sessions left till December opex after today, we have thanksgiving coming up and most people are up so much this year things are just going to be alot slower into year end if I had to guess as many just take off. I’m expecting alot of choppiness, but I’m not looking for anything dramatic up or down into year end unless NVDA has a crazy earnings move next week which is hard to fathom at a near $5T valuation.

The chart to watch right now is the XLE, this is the energy etf. It’s leader Exxon, XOM, is at highs of the year today. This chart wants more that’s why I wrote up an energy name this weekend, this sector looks like the place to be and typically when it is, equities don’t do well like 2022. I sold a nice put spread you’ll see down below on this today but keep an eye here as energy and tech stocks typically don’t work together. Natural gas is up over 4% today as we head into this cold front and that’s why I wrote up EQT this past weekend as things were lining up for a move there and you saw me add to energy names like SLB last week which is a top XLE component.

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