11/12 Recap

The market is cooling off a tad today, likely a combo of a strong dollar which seemingly hasn’t mattered recently and some taking off risk before CPI tomorrow morning. We haven’t touched the 8 ema since election night and a small 1% pullback tomorrow could do the trick. We deviated too far from it yesterday and are just getting aligned now. Worst case, you can see we spent 4 sessions before the election being held up by the 50 day, that’s a worst case of where we’d go if CPI was bad tomorrow.

The DXY, below, has been nonstop rising over 6% since late September. It’s pretty simple, usually, a strong dollar is a big negative for equities, this time it wasn’t because there was alot of excitement around the winner of the election. Still, this should put a lid on equities for a little bit if I was to guess. A period of sideways is fine, look how much we’re up the last 24 months, it has been a crazy rally and a little break is ok. If that happened, put sellers would be the big winners because that is the only way to profit in a flat market. Bulls really need the dollar to calm down a little.

Recent Trades

VICR - In the 10/17 recap here I noted these calls bought for $1 when the stock was $40, the name ran as high as $60 yesterday before pulling back 5% today. These calls expire this week and went from $1 to over $10 yesterday, even now they’re still $7-8 if you’re in these still I’d close up, 3 days to expiry no need to risk such a huge gain. Incredible trade and all 2500 are still in the open interest so the player has not closed.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will be open until tomorrow morning and the opening bell. The rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon.