11/13/25 Recap

The SPY is sitting ontop of the 21 ema on the cusp of breaking down again for the third time since October. This is just not bullish price action where you keep re-testing and losing the 21. If you remember the bulk of that run we had from April to October we broke the 21 ema just two times. What this should tell you is sellers are really stepping up and there just aren’t enough buyers to keep this bid. Today’s fit is over the fed now looking at not cutting in December as odds plunged under 50% now for a December cut. Bulls would like to see us close over the 21 ema today.

The bigger issue is megacap tech which is pretty much the entire market, the QQQ lost the 21 ema again today and if it cannot hold that 50 day right below it is in big trouble. Meta lost the 200 day, Microsoft lost the 100 day, Tesla lost the 50 day, and Nvidia is about to lose the 50 day. Amazon and Google are both still holding their 21 ema but showing alot of weakness, only Apple is holding strong and why not it was the only megacap not investing heavily in the AI trade that is being unwound. The growth names are all decimated as you see darlings from the whole year like IREN or BE slammed 30% in a week. Others like BTDR lost 50% in 3 sessions. The growth names are being throttled. We discussed this many times this week but the rotation to Energy,Materials,etc continues to unfold as you can see the XLE and XLB charts.

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