11/14/25 Recap

The SPY flushed hard and we had our 2nd open under the 50 day since the April bottom. As we do most of the time, we were saved as we’ve bounced back over the 50 but looking above you now have the 8 ema sloping down and about to cross through the 21 ema, that bearish crossover if it occurs would be our first since February when we had our last big selloff. Again it has not happened yet, but we’re on the cusp of it unless we get a really powerful move up in the next 1-2 sessions. We need to get back over the 21 ema as fast as possible to avoid that beginning to slope down too which is when the problems really begin. I imagine everything is riding on NVDA reporting next week, as 10% of the market and the unquestioned leader of the AI trade, the market is going to rise or fall on however that goes. What I will say is this is our 2nd test under the 50 day in 6 sessions, the more times you test a level, the higher the probability it eventually breaks. I don’t make predictions, I just trade what I’m seeing and while some will find this to be a great buying opportunity, to me it is worrisome we keep coming down and finding this moving average. This really isn’t healthy action where 2 fridays in a row we dump below the 50 day and get saved it’s a sign that we’re teetering on the edge, if we don’t get a big save from NVDA next week, look out.

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