11/17/25 Recap

The SPY is in no man’s land right now. We’re just over the 50 day but below the 8 and 21 ema as the 8 begins to slop down. If we didn’t get that massive Google pump afterhours friday on news Berkshire Hathaway took a stake, we would be losing the 50 day. Right now because we gapped up over 200 points last night on the NQ and completely faded it this morning turning red with Google up 5% still. This week all hinges on what comes from NVDA on wednesday afternoon and the reaction, until then this is just going to be choppy, I continue to believe 3 tests of the 50 day in a week are eventually going to lead to the floodgates opening lower but Nvidia could save this. The VIX continues to heat up which is another caution sign and tomorrow it looks like this 8 ema is going to confirm a cross below the 21 ema in our first bearish cross down since the April rally. I’m sure some will say that’s a contrarian buy signal and I’m sure Ryan Detrick has 3000 examples where stocks were higher 12 months later because stocks mostly always go up, but it is still a sign that you should proceed with caution in the short term and doesn’t occur that often so you should probably lighten up a bit.

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