11/18 Recap

We are green today but pretty insignificant move. Look below and you can see just an inside candle sandwiched between the 8 and 21 ema on the daily of the SPY. We’d need to see a break over that 8 day to say things are ok and a break below would say the opposite, either way we may have a potential iceberg ahead I’ll discuss it below……

So lots of information coming out about this this apparent H5N1 outbreak happening now, the media isn’t really discussing it, but they also didn’t discuss covid early on. It was Twitter that was breaking all the news and from the things I’m seeing right now, we need to hope for the best because we don’t want to deal with another pandemic. It seems as of this morning the government is reporting 549 cases in cattle 15 states, this could have all sorts of ramifications to our food supply,etc. It is still very early but something to monitor.

As for how markets would be impacted if this were serious, I’d tell you the same thing I always do, watch and respect the 21 ema on the SPY and you will be fine. The charts tell the real story. Here is a chart of the covid crash in 2020. The light blue line is the 21 ema, we got that small headfake below it in late January, then you had the people who said it was nothing, followed by a second 21 ema break a few days later where it lost the 50 day in the same session. If you exited that day the SPY closed over 320 before bottoming at 220 a couple weeks later. Nobody in history has been caught up in a big sell off by respecting the 21 ema break to the downside. That’s probably the most important thing you will take from me.

Recent Trades

BKR - In the 11/4 recap here I noted a large put sale on BKR for December. It is up 15% since and these short puts went from .75 to .05 in 2 weeks, you can close these up now for a near total gain a month early. Nice trade if you took them.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it will be up until tomorrow morning at the open and the rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon. There were too many call trades to post a screen grab today so please utilize the link below.