11/18/25 Recap

The SPY lost the 50 day on the close yesterday for the first time since April and today we got that followthrough I had been looking for the last few days. This is why I had been removing tech from my portfolio and shifting focus elsewhere for the last week or so. Tech is really all that’s hit hard today, most other sectors are red slightly but nothing crazy as the de-grossing unfolds. Now we’re likely to touch that 100 day right below just over 650 and if we don’t hold that, the floodgates really open to lower levels. It really all hinges on NVDA tomorrow. If I had to guess NVDA does well, we pop higher and reject at that 8 ema which has no officially crossed down through the 21 ema for the first time in 7 months. We should have a bounce somewhere here in tech, this has been a quick move down and I think at a minimum a relief bounce is due.

It’s really not as bad out there as it feels its just everyone is so overweight tech and that’s why I’ve been telling you for days now to respect that 21 ema and lighten up on it. Right now the XLF,XLP,XLV, and XLB are all green. Plenty of things are working they just aren’t tech. Things will be ok, they always are in the long run, just short term you have to respect what the moving averages are telling you.

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