11/19 Recap

The market remains in wait and see mode. The SPY gapped down below the 21 ema this morning, its second test below in 3 sessions, and so far has recovered. Still, it remains stuck below the 8 ema. If it is going over, it probably requires a great print from NVDA tomorrow. If not, the 50 day is closing in on 580 and that probably is where we head. There is so much going on out in the world you have Russia threatening to escalate the war with nukes, the wastewater in Los Angeles yesterday had record levels of H5N1, and you had pretty terrible economic data this morning in regards to housing starts. To say this market is resilient in the face of potential issues is an understatement, but I’m not sure how long it can continue to brush all this stuff off. We need some of these things to calm down. For now, it seems like we’ve saved the 21 ema for at least another session but take a look at the macd, it flipped negative today. We’ll just have to reassess things after the NVDA report tomorrow.

Recent Trades

PINS - This is a good example of theta decay and why I always like referencing put sales. I highlighted this back on 11/4 here and Pinterest was $32 and it’s $29 today. That would have been a bad trade if you were long calls or common but if you utilized the put spread I noted below using a 25/24 for December, it is nearly worthless now. You could close it up for maybe 3-4 cents now but the point is when you sell puts you can still win even if the stock doesn’t go up and I think that’s just a major advantage that more people need to take advantage of. Selling puts in the right direction of option flow at key levels on a chart. That is your alpha that you need to outperform.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database as always this will expire tomorrow at the opening bell and the rest of today’s trades will be added by this evening.