11/19/25 Recap

The SPY had a small relief bounce but nothing meaningful as it didn’t even touch the 8 ema from the underside. Today is all about NVDA and the earnings call afterhours. If it has a strong reaction we may be able to clear all these overhead moving averages in the market and begin the santa rally everyone speaks of. If NVDA sells off hard and takes everything with it, we could be looking at opening the doors to that 200 day average under 620. Whether you’re in NVDA or not, when something is 10% of the market, and you’re long the market, you’re hoping NVDA does well today. The VIX is still 24 which is weighing on everything, we need that to cool down for a sustained move up. NVDA should be fine barring some surprise, the question is will the market care? I’d say right now the market is really separating the AI winners from the pretenders, Google has been running very hard as they are perceived to be the big winner of ai and the small caps that ran on nothing but hype have all been slammed. If that is the case, then NVDA should be fine. Overall, until we clear that 21 ema overhead, we are in a clear downtrend, we may have a bounce today but until it clears that, nothing meaningful has occurred. I’m always hopeful the downtrend will end quickly but you have to believe after 7 months over the 50 day, the first break won’t only be 3 days long, but we will see how the NVDA er goes but so far today’s candle is a terrible rejection.

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