11/2/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY put in an ugly doji for the week, this is a major warning sign to me. This sort of candle shows alot of indecisiveness and I don’t think we should have seen that considering most of the megacaps that reported had strong prints and even the market leader NVDA hit new highs without reporting. To me, this signals some weakness under the surface. The 21 week is way down at 643 and we’re at 682 now which historically is one of the larger gaps. You can see the bearish divergence unfolding as we keep ticking higher and the rsi keeps going lower. To say we are running on fumes would be an understatement right now but like always, the trend is your friend and we have yet to have a single close below the 8 week(dark blue line) since May, but the minute we have the first you need to reduce your exposure immediately.

For the moment, you need to stick to the names that had strong earnings reactions. Those names will have post earnings drift if the market holds up, and if the market has a downturn, those names should hold up better. So things like META, take that off your watchlist for the time being, you saw this weakness in Friday’s session. That is just what happens, the names with the bad reactions tend to have drift in the other direction as they become funding shorts. I do think META is materially higher in 2 years, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be weak for a little while as money shifts to the trending names. This week’s best idea is going to focus on various ways to trade the megacap I think had the best reaction this week as that showed it is likely the leader of the market after its report.