11/23/25 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY just had its first close under the 8 week since this uptrend began. This is not ideal, the good news is that we bounced right at the 21 week. We need a fairly quick bounce back over the 8 week or things can get ugly here. The question here is what is our next catalyst? We don’t have earnings to save us, the ai trade is unraveling, and all the defensives are catching bids. Are we really about to have a second major selloff in 8 months? It is starting to feel that way and without big tech picking things up there is just no way this market, as a whole, can turn up. As we go into this week, META is below the 200 day while MSFT and AMZN sit on the 200 day as NVDA just lost the 100 day friday. Those 4 names alone are over 20% of the market and they are all laggards recently.

So what do you do here? Well for starters you can take the megacaps like Amazon and Microsoft long at the 200 day and risk a few dollars on a close below it looking for a bounce, both had great quarters, they shouldn’t be down where they are. Meta had a bad quarter, their move down was justified because of the capex. I added Amazon late in the session friday knowing that $2-3 lower was the 200 day and I could close below it if this is the big selloff. Otherwise all the normal defensive sectors are working XLV,XLP and even the XLE is still looking great on a weekly basis.We’re on week 4 of this move down this coming week is a short one with Thanksgiving Thursday and a half day friday. We have not had 5 straight red weekly candles since 2022 so let us see what this week ahead has in store but momentum has flipped negative now too.

This week’s best idea is a leader in its space that has fallen on some hard times recently and is 20% off highs and is trading right at its 50 month which is a spot it has lost on a close only 1 time in the last decade. It either bounces here or the long term story has cracks and I don’t believe that to be the case.