11/28 Recap, A Minefield Awaits.

Take your pick was today a dump on China rebellion? Was it FED speakers all telling us they want stocks lower? Was it negative YOY black friday numbers in real terms? It could’ve been all three, whatever it was, we reversed a few dollars before my target. Still though, that is why I suggested selling the bearish call spreads over the weekend as my best idea. One way or another the market was nearing a short term top as I’ve been saying for a while. Was today the reversal, or do we have a little juice left? That remains to be seen.

The stalling out just below the 200 DMA the last 2 sessions was telling, there were no buyers to be found above that point Today we fell back below the 8/10 ema, not bullish. Could it be a fakeout? Possiby, I was always in the camp we would reverse AFTER Powell spoke wednesday, I was hopefully we would touch that red line above before, but that doesn’t seem likely now. Look at that nice open cap below at $380. That would be my first target if this selloff continues. More notable is the MACD is maybe 2 days away from flipping negative. That would effectively end this little rally

Oil(below) had a nice intraday reversal. That chart is all kinds of broken and wont recover quickly. All those moving averages need to flatten out first, and then it can slowly begin to retake big levels. This chart actually reminds me alot of when Amazon finally broke down back in April. Oil is probably fine, but I wouldn’t expect a quick turnaround.

The dollar(below) has continued to bounce right where it should on the 200 DMA. Like oil, it is another broken chart. It was up today so stocks went down, this correlation will continue. As you see the MACD here has a bullish divergence, the opposite of the SPY chart, showing a stronger dollar short term which makes sense with the weakness the SPY is flashing.

Today’s Unusual Options Flow & What Stood Out

Before I get into this I wanted to say something, last week when I asked if there was any part of my daily recaps I could cut to save time, someone mentioned this part. I was really shocked because to me, this is the most important part of the recap. All the unusual options flows laid out and then sorted into what I find most intriguing. Look how many trades this has uncovered throughout the year. Even today look at PDD up 15% in 1 session, if you go back the last few weeks and look at old recaps you will see all the unusual PDD calls nearly everyday for a while. Just remember, the most important rule in life is “Follow the money” and that’s what this part is all about. So I would definitely make sure to note all the directional flows here. Ok rant over, let’s see today’s action.