11/3 Recap
The jobs number came in well below estimates this morning and equities loved it. The SPY just put in one of the most incredible weeks that I can ever remember. We’re up almost 5% this week, but look below, there are now all sorts of gaps to fill. You have names like Amazon up 20% in a week, it is really overdone short term in my opinion and you need a cooling off period with a pullback to the 8 ema on all these names for a healthy consolidation. Look where the 8 ema is right now on the SPY vs where we are? The same divergence is true on most names because of how fast they ran.
The weekly chart on SPY looks even crazier, we just took out 6 weeks of closes in 1 swoop. For the moment it is above all the averages after reclaiming the 8 ema weekly.
Yields continue to plunge with the TNX at 45.xx now. That is why you’re seeing ARKK up another 6% today after an 8% move yesterday. These are some absurd moves on the small caps which seemingly only trade on rates.
Lastly the VIX is down 30% this week showing no fear, 5 straight days lower from over 21 to 15.xx, typically we’ve sold off every Friday out of fear of what will come on the weekend from the war in the middle, that hasn’t been the case to this point today. There is no fear and we’re back to bidding growth stocks on mediocre numbers.
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