11/30 Recap

Nasty sessions today with tech leading the way lower. We got this rotation short term into all these defensive names like healthcare, banks,railroads, and large cap biotech. Tech has run hot this year, but it was just a mean reversion trade after the 2022 disaster we saw. Most are back at 2021 levels and are trading at cheaper multiples, I don’t think there is some egregious bubble or anything, but for now, they’re selling tech and moving to other things. That’s fine, breadth was atrocious all year with nothing but tech moving. We also have the Cybertruck reveal from Tesla today at 3 pm EST, normally I wouldn’t care but Tesla is the 7th largest company in our markets and this is a reveal of what seeks to be their product to compete with the number 1 selling car in America, the Ford F-150, so it is absolutely a big deal and with their weighting in many ETF’s, what happens today will definitely read through to others

The SPY has not broken the 8 ema yet so it is still holding up, but for long remains to be seen, I still think that gap 3% lower is where you should target to add more longs in the short term. You can see the RSI begin to cool off.

Tech looks worse with the QQQ actually breaking below the 8 ema and looking very weak. That gap below is now the level you want to target to enter tech longs. Then again, who knows, maybe Tesla does something extraordinary today and all tech rallies tomorrow but for now it looks like MACD is about to roll negative and we will see a short period of weakness as it burns it off. Again, these tech names are all up so much in the last 4-5 weeks, it’s ok for them to take a break.

Oil had a very large intraday reversal today flushing down below 76. The Opec meeting is in 2 days and like I alluded to in yesterday’s recap, they always seem to sell the news on these events so today didn’t really shock me. Just be careful if you’re heavily long energy names there is alot that can happen over this weekend and you won’t have any control with the market closed.

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