1/14/26 Recap
The SPY is testing the 21 ema today and slowly moving under it. You don’t want to see that break on a close if you’re a bull as that would signal a trend shift. The market did not like the delay on the tariff ruling from the Supreme Court now being the second delay in less than a week. When will get the ruling now? I don’t know but the market hates uncertainty and you’re seeing it play out with this big NQ -400 day so far with the VIX staying bid. Also not helping have been the weak earnings reactions from banks with JPM yesterday and WFC today down 5%. If we lose the 21 ema on the close you will want to lighten things up a bit in your book where it is reducing leverage or just closing things out. The only way to keep from getting hit hard in a downturn is respecting the 21 ema and not being very heavy in things when we’re below it. It could very well be a shallow dip under the 21 ema but the fact remains you press things over it and below it, you don’t until it is reclaimed. Your life will be much simpler if you accept this as a rule in your trading life.
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