11/5 Recap

The big day is here and we will know more about the next direction of the market probably by tonight but who knows if there are issues counting votes in tight races and things take a little while to clear up. If that were to happen I’d imagine the market would not like it as the market hates uncertainty. As of right now it appears on betting sites that Trump is the favorite, is it true, who knows, underdogs win sometimes too right now $160 bet on Donald pays out $100 and $100 bet on Kamala pays out $130.

As for trades regarding each candidate. I don’t recommend anything for today, you’re just gambling. but if you’re looking to gamble on the results and ensuing trades. I’d say with Trump you’d be looking at things like bitcoin, financials, jails, infrastructure as plays and with Kamala you’d be looking at things like Solar, shorting the dollar, things like long american EVs such as Rivian and shorting Tesla. A Kamala presidency wouldn’t be too favorable to Elon, he himself has joked about being put in jail if Kamala wins. TSLA is up 4% today which is another hint people aren’t scared of betting on TSLA today into that potential event.

At this moment looking at the market, in an effort to create as much confusion as possible as we always do, we’re running right into that 21 ema from the underside on the SPY, below. Is this a 4 day long bear market and we gap up overnight and go from there? Possibility for sure or we could reject here and turn lower. Let the price action confirm things tomorrow. If you miss a gap up it isn’t the end of the world, you can sell puts into it and get into things tomorrow. That is alot better than being part of a huge gap down tonight should that be the outcome.

Recent Trades

APO - up 7% today to near 150. Back on 8/29 here someone added a massive block of 90,000 max strike 185 calls on APO with it at 114.xx Those calls were $2 at the time, those calls are now 10.50 and all 90,000 are still in the open interest. I’ve documented all these trades for 2.5 years now and these max strike calls are rare in size but seemingly everytime they’re placed they pay out fortunes, remember the AXP ones? The NEM ones? Pretty impressive bet by whoever placed it and they’re not cashing in yet even though they are up over $80m on their $18m bet.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, it will be open until tomorrow morning’s opening bell, the rest of today’s trades will be added by the afternoon.