1/16 Recap

Really interesting session so far with the market red but Semis leading the way after a slew of upgrades from Barclays. AMD just ran $10 after the open, NVDA was up another near $20 so far. Tesla also had a large gap down on the Musk tweet about being unhappy with his pay package and it reversed nearly $10 off lows putting in a strong candle so far. The VIX is up 5% so far signaling a little fear. Natural gas was down 11% today in a big move down in the commodity space, last week there were a couple big UNG put buys that I noted.

The SPY continues to hold over the 8 ema, short term it still looks ok, if that breaks and it may today, then I would start to worry. There are lots of earnings coming the next 3 weeks so doubtful the market makes much of a move in either direction until we start seeing some numbers. A break below that light blue line, the 21 ema, is when I will be more than worried short term.

The TNX is back to that flag its been in looking like it wants to breakout, but stuck below the 200 day. If yields rip, and they keep looking like they want to, we will have weakness for a while which lines up with the weakness we had last year during this same period through March.

Trends

Now that we’re a couple weeks into the year,I can post the 1 week and 2 week trends. The 1 month trends aren’t really useful yet because I took those last 2 weeks of the year off so they’re basically the 2 week trends. Short term look at NVDA its the top trend and what a run its had the last 6 days. AMD is another that’s been high up in 2 week trends and its been nonstop. Others like BABA and BA have been poor, but we’d have to look at the trades they’re putting on, most are likely not short term.

1 Week

2 Week

Today’s Link

Here is the link for the database, as always it expires at the market open tomorrow. Live members I posted a link on Friday in the discussion area with a longer term expiration you can use.