11/6/25 Recap

The SPY is losing the 21 ema right now, it is still early in the session, but if this confirms on the close, the uptrend is over. Our next support level would be the yellow line which is the 50 day, if we lose that you’re looking at the 100 well below 650. Is today a prelude to the supreme court ruling on tariffs? Was it the Fed member recently saying we shouldn’t be cutting rates? Look, the how or why doesn’t matter, what matters is the price action is telling you today to lighten up ALOT. When we’re back on the otherside of this 21 ema press things, for now you’re getting a major warnings sign to stop buying short term calls on tech because the market weakness is usually mostly tech since that is the bulk of the weighting. Other sectors like energy are going fine today and seeing serious money flow in, you’ll see my book below where I adjusted alot of tech for energy because of that. Respecting the 21 ema will save you alot of pain in markets, think of it this way, markets never have huge drawdowns above the 21 ema, but 100% of big drawdowns start below the 21. Look back at say the last 10 times the SPY broke the 21 ema, most of the time it is nothing, but look at the February close which led to a massive selloff. So caution is not wrong today.

In times like this you want to look for relative strength, if you want to play megacap tech you have AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN all above the 8 ema so they’re displaying strength while names like MSFT just lost the 100 day or META lost the 200 day, you want to ignore those. Try to shift your focus to sectors and names that are green today like China,Energy, Treasuries etc to weather the storm so to speak as the NQ plunges over 500 points so far and loses its uptrend. Just relax, we are in an uptrend 90% of the time, it is understanding when we’re not in an uptrend, like now, and not pressing things into that, where you save yourself major headaches by not being reckless. We will recover, we will make new highs, it won’t be tomorrow, but we will just try to not to blow up in these small periods of weakness.

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