11/7/25 Recap

The SPY is now losing the 50 day, we have not broken this moving average since April. I assume we will get a late day of save of this like we usually do but if we don’t you really have to heed what I said yesterday and lighten up your tech exposure. The 8 ema is about to crossover the 21 ema also something we’ve gotten close on but have not done since April. You have every warning sign telling you it isn’t time to be long the usual tech names. Today is the second straight day where energy(XLE), materials(XLB), and consumer staples(XLP) are green as tech sells hard. All you have to do in these times is remove your long term bias to tech, those large cap names will all be fine long term but if you’re overexposed in the short term it will sting. Just focus on what is strong right now. If we lose this 50 day on the close today, you’re now looking at the 100 day below as the next support. The biggest culprit this week is NVDA, it is down 14% this week, another 4.5% today. Being 10% of our market by weight it is weighing on things heavily right now. I don’t really make “calls” I just go by what the moving averages tell me and right now they’re saying major caution is warranted. If you’re one of those contrarian types you can take this is a bat signal to buy but like I said, we haven’t broken the 50 day since April so maybe something is wrong under the hood this time. 664.99 is the 50 day right now and bulls would prefer we close over that.

If you look at a longer term view, we are losing the 8 week potentially on a close for the first time since April as well on the SPY. All these warning signs are telling you to just step aside if you don’t want to get chopped up. We have a couple catalysts coming up that could potentially spark a turnaround, one would be the end of the government shutdown and then we have NVDA earnings coming up soon. Other than that, there isn’t much here to prevent us from heading down to that 21 week around 650. You see my book, I’m not super concerned, they always save the market, but I have shifted alot from tech to some of the names working right now. The reason I’m not really bearish is Trump has managed to tie the health of the economy to stock prices with his rhetoric, he can no longer blame this on Joe Biden like he did in April, so for a President who loves to tell everyone how great markets are and thus his economy, I’m not concerned about a long term move down because he will save this sooner than later with something. We could end the government shutdown sunday and gap up a ton, its just really hard to be long term bearish when we literally have to push equities up all the time to keep society functioning properly. Be cautious, but don’t panic.

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