1/18/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY just closed over the 8 week again and you can see this nice uptrend we’ve been in since last April, we are riding this 8 ema higher for the time being without a care in the world. Megacap earnings kickoff in 10 days and until we hear from the companies that make up most of the weighting in the market, there just isn’t much to say. We’ve gone nowhere really in 3 months, the moving averages are catching up right now but we’re also 1 bad week away from all sorts of technical damage unfolding so you have to be mindful day to day and respect any breakdown we have below things like the 21 ema as a sign to lighten up. Keep that in mind because it looks like Tuesday may get a little ugly with what has unfolded so far this 3 day weekend.

This week’s best idea is not the sexiest name but it has a near 5% dividend and a ton of bullish options activity recently. These names are interesting because you look at something like SWK when I wrote that up as a best idea the first weekend of December here and at the time a few people emailed me about Stanley Decker being a boring name, sure enough it rallied 20% in the following month far outpacing the market. I try to keep things simple, I go where the option flow is, like last week with that SGML, I said don’t buy commons because it moves erratically sure enough the first 2 days of the week it rose 25% and then the last 3 days of the week it fell 30%. So that’s why I usually try to avoid junk names like that but the flow was dead on there as they piled in there right before that sharp move did occur. So this week back to a more conservative name and an idea to hopefully maximize your returns and get you in at the right price