12/12/25 Recap

The SPY broke down to the 21 ema so far today after the big move down in AVGO and then the mid day delay from ORCL. The ai trade has been weak for some time and unfortunately as impactful as it was on the way up, it is on the way down too. This market has serious issues here with 4 of the 7 major leaders NVDA,MSFT,AMZN,and META all below the 100 day. The tell recently was our inability to make a new high on the SPY, we got close but never actually made it and now if we don’t hold this 21 ema we are sitting ontop of it can open the door to much lower levels.

Tech stocks look the worst by far with the QQQ below losing the 21 ema and even the 50 day right now. This really isn’t too surprising to me as you’ll remember I mentioned at the end of November the hanging man monthly candle which usually comes before a move down. When the real concern would happen is if we lose that 100 day(white line) for a second time in a few weeks. Bulls are hoping for a strong close today where this QQQ doesn’t lose the 50 day.

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