1/21/26 Recap

The SPY is still not in the clear below the 21 ema and we’re seeing the 8 cross through the 21 for a bearish crossover which we have not seen since mid November which last led to a small period of weakness. Today’s bounce is really more of what I mentioned in yesterday’s recap where Trump backed off his Greenland takeover plan and said yesterday was “peanuts” and the market would double from here. That’s Trump, stocks are a big focus of his and we began the recovery off yesterday’s panic. I would like to see us quickly get over that 21 ema and not let this turn into a prolonged move down but so far we are recovering the 50 day by a hair. This likely is a bit of a bounce and we reject overhead from the way things are going. We have big earnings tomorrow from Intel, the megacaps are still a week away, but today’s pending home sales data was awful, it was a shock miss of -9.3% which was way over the estimate of down .3%. Powell is going to have to cut rates if it stays like this, the housing data is just awful. 670.46 is the 21 week on the SPY right now, that is the focus for me as we’re 1.5% away from a big trend shift so bulls need a bounce and fast but megacaps are the bulk of the weighting and right now they almost all look terrible so right now you want to focus on other things besides megacap tech.

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