12/13 Recap

Slow day as we await the fed decision and Powell speaking this afternoon. This was one of the slowest days I can remember on the options side of things, just not alot going on here into year end. It could be anything but really just seasonality combined with how much everyone is up this year, nobody is really pressing anything here. I don’t expect much really from here the next few weeks in terms of options volumes.

The SPY just continues to press higher and although it is at its most overbought point of the year, but we’ve been overbought for about a month now. Today is looking like a possible reversal candle so far. Let’s see what happens the rest of the session. Everyone is certain Powell will pause again today, but who knows, what if he surprises with a hike? Is that priced in? No, and its a low probability, but it is still a possibility so people moving to the sidelines here are being prudent after a very good year.

The TNX is nearing a 200 day touch for the first time since June, do we get there soon or does it reverse? Yields coming down 20% in 2 months was nice, but stock bulls want to see more.

Recent Trades Of Interest

In yesterday’s recap there was a nice sized weekly buy of LIN 425/410 put spreads 500x. It got decimated today down 4.6% to $407 right now. That was a great trade by whoever put that on.

On Friday in the 12-8 recap I had noted some odd call buying in AAOI it peaked at +15% at one point today, but it doesn’t look like those march calls were closed, still a nice run just 4 days later. It’s uncanny how these call buyers manage to step in right before whatever news is about to emerge especially in these smaller underfollowed names

Trends

ADBE was down 2% today on earnings, the direction was right with that trending at the top of the bearish names for the past month. I didn’t have a chance to read their report, but will be interesting to see if it continues to drift lower with alot of those puts in January and onward. AMZN did break out to new 52 week highs today at 149.50 but sold off with the /NQ weakness, those bullish call buyers for the past month have been very right on direction there too with it as the top name.

1 Week

2 Week