12/14 Recap. Powell Ended Hopes Of A Pivot

I got what I wanted, for the second time in the last couple weeks I went all in short and got just what I was hoping for. Being able to time the market is an important skill if you’re ever going to be able to make it in this game. I had so many guys the last few days barking at me on twitter about how they don’t waste time positioning and just buy. That’s fine, buy and hold is a proven method, but we’re here to trade. I too have my buy and don’t look stocks, of which Amazon is still my biggest holding, but with that said, you have to admit, that downtrend line I’ve been pointing at for weeks on end has been a perfect spot to go short as we’ve rejected it twice in no time. Am I bear? No, in fact I closed out my puts from yesterday for a nice win but I’ll go over that at the end when I discuss my positions. Just remember these lines and moving averages aren’t a joke and the real joke is anyone who denies their prowess.

With that said, let’s look at some charts, the SPY filled the entire gap from yesterday morning, and see, that’s what I said in monday’s recap, I told you the next 2 days would be a complete trainwreck of moves in both directions and of course we ripped to 414 on the SPY and then flushed to 396 today. I always post everything I do in the discord under the trade only section for those of you who are new or haven’t joined us in there. You can see when I closed my puts today and went long there. The discord is one of the great resources of this substack, there’s 100+ other traders in there, lots of sharp guys you can bounce ideas off of and learn from.

As you zoom out you can see a clear rejection of the downtrend for the 4th time and a long wick above becomes mega bearish if that candle goes red by friday. Until we close over that downtrend this bear market is just not over no matter what anyone tells you.

The dollar(below) continues its full fledged decline. This is a bullish catalyst for stocks, but step back for a moment and look at the decline we’ve had from late September, stocks aren’t up as much as the dollar is down. In real terms, stocks have not gained. Just remember that when people talk about “the rally”.

Oil had a perfect bounce off oversold levels, up 10% in no time. The MACD is set to turn bullish and oil may beginning a resumption of its strength.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out