12/15/25 Recap

The SPY is testing the 21 ema for the 2nd straight session, typically multiple tests eventually lead to the floodgates opening lower. This morning we opened up very green on the Nasdaq and flipped red very quickly, with all things considered, this being the last opex of the year on friday, I really don’t think it is time to be too heavy in tech stocks since they make up the bulk of the weight. On the chart below you can see momentum rolling over and barring a sharp move up, it goes negative tomorrow or wednesday. This has been a very weak rally off the pre thanksgiving move down, we went sideways for a couple weeks and now seem to be trying to move lower. Bitcoin continues to break lower and for some silly reason the Nasdaq seems to be correlated to it where every move down there is met with one in tech stocks.

Tech stocks are the real culprit here with the QQQ now losing the 50 day, you really don’t want to touch any tech names until that is reclaimed. This is now a very clear lower high that formed, that is not bullish in any way.

My Open Book

The only things I added today were