12/29 Recap. The Small Uptrend Has Broken.

What timeframe do you want me to discuss? Here is the SPY daily and you can see the small uptrend we’ve been in from the gap up on CPI data has finally broken. 13 days and it finally closed below that uptrend. Does that mean pain ahead?

Well if you zoom out a little bit(below) and draw an uptrend from the recent market lows where we reversed you will see that we have not broken that uptrend, yet. So short term we are bearish, medium term until that line on the bottom breaks, we’re still in an uptrend. Confused? It’s just a smaller uptrend within a larger uptrend is what broke now. There is still a huge gap at 380 and the MACD looks to be negative tomorrow barring a huge rally.

Powell of course has his big speech tomorrow, will he do what he did at Jackson Hole in August and just crash stocks? It is a possibility, maybe even a probablity because he really has nothing left in the tank. The rate hikes aren’t really slowing inflation like he thought they would.

So tomorrow has alot of potential to get ugly, if he wants it to.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out