12/9/25 Recap

The SPY continues to build out this flag now with 8 days sideways. You’re really gambling right now if you’re long tech stocks into tomorrow. If Powell happens to not cut rates, we likely get a nasty selloff, and honestly at this point even if he does cut rates, you have to think its priced in considering almost everyone has the odds of it happening as a near certainty. Either way you’re gambling if you’re pressing things into the biggest FOMC of the year. Today we have the Oracle print and that should also be a big event for chip names and the entire AI trade. As we sit now, we’re over all the key moving averages, its fine to be long but we’re 24 hours away from a big market moving event and you’re probably up alot this year so unless you really feel the need to gamble on it, I’d just sit out until the day after it passes. Those initial moves on FOMC often reverse hard in both directions in the following hours.

As it sits now on Polymarket, we’re at 95%+ odds he cuts rates tomorrow.

My Open Book

Trades I Added Today