1/3 Recap

We gapped up today but remain stuck right under this 8 ema, I still wouldn’t say it is time to be bullish overall. This is our 4th session closing below the 50 day so momentum is building to the downside unless we make a quick move back up. Earnings season does start here in 2 weeks so maybe just a little more weakness before we get that small run up we do every earnings season. The good news is we’ve been flat so long that a small pop and we clear all the moving averages and resume a bulltrend not even 1% higher, but for now, we have to be cautious because we cannot seem to get up over it.

The longer term chart of the SPY is not pretty, we’re looking at a close below the 8 week, just our 3rd since September. Momentum seems to be rolling over even though we held the 21 ema this week.

The biggest concern for me is this DXY, below, the dollar has been a wrecking ball since October rising just around 10%. A move like that would typically pressure equities, but it has not impacted us at all so far. You have to think it will sooner than later, so this is the one thing that should concern you as equities keep brushing the dollar off.

Recent Trades

TTD - In yesterday’s recap I joked that TTD was looking at a possible upgrade with such a speculative bet. Sure enough, it got 2 upgrades this morning.

These calls were bought yesterday for .13, right now the stock is at 120.66 and the high of the day on the calls is .65 so these went for a huge 5x gain overnight. More than that, these types of trades have to be looked at for direction, I sold puts yesterday because I’m conservative, but you could have just swung shares if you were gutsy and gained nearly $4 in less than a day. Trades like this are exactly what I’m looking for in terms of “unusual” even though this wasn’t a big dollar trade, only around $15,000 it was the type of trade placed by someone in the know, with only a few hours to work, possibly even the analysts involved in the upgrade.

My Current Positions