2/12 Recap

Weird session thus far, the /NQ is green but outside of META and NVDA all the big 7 are red with Tesla leading the way lower down almost 2.5%. These chip names are going nuts again with SMCI up 7%, NVDA up 2%, and ARM up over 30% at one point today. ARM was seeing call buys for weeks on end I highlighted last week and it zoomed higher again. These moves are getting nutty and if any of you traded back in the dotcom boom, this feels very similar. Obviously very different because these are real companies this time, but this price action is just not healthy. ARM is up over 100% in 3 sessions. I get it, the float is small but still.

At one point today I had noted ARM $150 calls for next week at 9:46 my time. You can see the stock was $131.66

you can see below it just exploded higher and within 15 minutes or so the stock had gone from $131.66 to $155+. That is really not normal for a $100b+ company on no news in the middle of the day to just rise nearly 20% in 15 minutes. One of the craziest things I’ve ever seen if Im honest.

The SPY continues to just float higher, nothing to update here other than we remain overbought and still no 8 ema touch. I want to say we’re running out of steam with all the megacaps red mostly but something else is picking up the slack today. Hard to be bearish with this price action. The Vix is up 5% today with the market green, that should be a warning sign for everyone.

The IWM is where all the action was today going up 2%. This happened right before new years as well, the IWM is “small caps” but really it is just a collection of junk. IT had a few nice bounces off the 50 day recently and finally moved up. These have lagged for a very long time. Small caps flying with a rising VIX is usually time to exercise caution.

Recent Trades

Remember that big TTD call I noted recently on 2/2? The stock was sub $70 it is up 10% since and 6% alone today to $75.53 right now. Very clean break of that falling wedge below and that call buyer is already up nearly 50% on that trade.

I was a week early on those GS calls I highlighted last week. It is finally breaking out of its flag higher today almost 396 now. That’s why I hate trying to time this stuff with short term calls, if you see a good chart, which means you see accumulation, then just long the common and relax, the probability the trade works is favorable.

Trends

Nothing surprising here, the hottest names continue seeing bullish action META,AMZN,NVDA,DIS,ARM,TSM,UBER are 7 of the top 10 short term trends. All have been going great. NVDA has dominated the bullish trends all year and is seemingly up 1% or more daily. Even PYPL which has been awful for years finally seems to be picking up with a +3% day and that has been a hot trend all year.

1 Week

2 Week

Year To Date

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Below is today’s link to the database. As always it expires at the open tomorrow and the rest of today’s action will be added this afternoon. There were too many calls today which would have skewed table I post so it is just easier if you go see today’s trades in the link under daily chart. That’s the market we’re in where there are just too many calls to even post a normal table like I always do because it would be too long, that has never happened in my near 2 years of doing this. Usually there is a somewhat even distribution, today its 75 calls bought vs 31 puts bought vs 28 puts sold thus far.