2/1/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The SPY wrapped up another week over the 8 week, its just remarkable how strong this bull market has been since the crash last April but look at this chart below, there is not much to say. Simply put, we keep holding the trend, we’ve now gone sideways for 3+ months and if we don’t break out of this range soon, the probability that we break down increases. We just had 4 of the mag 7 report and other than META, the rest had pretty lackluster earnings reactions. That tells you all you need to know because Apple had a very strong print and was barely up .5%. This coming week we have 2 more chances to hear from megacaps with Google now the leader of the AI trade and how it reacts will read through to many others. The attack on Iran seems underway as of Saturday morning, what will come from that? Will commodities bounce back? Friday saw many of the hot themes of the last month unwind in 1 session. Just a weird couple days all around but in general we continue to hold the 21 week now at 675 and until that is lost this is all just normal movement within a bigger uptrend but the vix heating up yesterday is sending warning signs you need to pay attention to and lighten up until things calm down some more.

This weeks best idea is a name breaking out of a multi year base, one of the leaders of the market recently that had a pretty orderly test of the 21 ema this week and held. Now we can look at some longer term trades to put and like I always do I will look at some conservative and aggressive trade options.