2/13 Recap. CPI Looms Large Tomorrow.

Today was a nice move over the 8/10 EMA into the big print tomorrow, the SPY continues to trade in this pretty bullish structure I noted the other day. This is a bull flag, there is nothing to spin on it. The SPY is over every moving average and it’s just strong. Could CPI be hot tomorrow and slam it, sure, but as long as it is over that downtrend at 395 or so, it isn’t bearish. A weekly close below that downtrend line would be very bearish, so the next 4 days are big for where we are headed. Estimates are all over the place from 5.8% to 6.8% tomorrow and trying to guess the direction is just simply gambling, hence why I focus more on selling puts and letting the market come to me.

IWM

A tad weaker than the SPY at the moment, small caps have had their run, cooling off is normal. If inflation comes in hot tomorrow this is the space that will get slammed the hardest as the big reason they ran was the potential for rates to come down soon.

Dollar

The DXY continues to trade in a flag that looks like it wants higher, but it’s unlikely stocks and the dollar rise together, so one of these charts is lying and we will find out which it is tomorrow. A break below 102 tomorrow would be very bad for the dollar

Oil

Oil lagged today but nothing abnormal after the run it has had the last few sessions. Oil names continue to see bullish flows as Putin continues to promise escalation in Ukraine.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity & What Stood Out

Well, here we are 3 weeks of compiling data has finally led to me databasing close to 1,000 trades and now I’m going to begin sharing daily what I see as unusual for the day along with what I’m seeing over longer timeframes to help give you more direction on how to potentially play names in whatever manner you choose. Give me some feedback in the comments on what you think.