2/14 Recap

The SPY had a really weak bounce today, look at those last 3 candles, buyers are just not stepping up right now. Yesterday we nearly tested the 21 ema and today the MACD finally flipped negative. It has been a great run, there is no shame in saying a little cooldown is needed after 14 green weeks in 15 tries. Until we finally confirm a trend shift with a close below the 21 ema this remains an uptrend, but you can feel momentum coming out and it seems like a good time to start to lighten up just going off feel. Even from here, I would say upside on the market is maybe 5-7% tops this year? 535 tops? I know individual names will outperform as they print numbers, but as a whole the market has run really hot and I don’t expect much overall from this point forward in 2024.

Oil reversed….again. It is also putting in a bearish engulfing on the daily for now. You can throw out every technical point you’ve learned trading oil because breakouts reverse the next day and then you get bearish candles and it rips higher the next day.

Recent Trades

UBER is up 12%!!! If you remember I went in depth on Uber back in early December writing it up as a best idea at the time on 12/9 in the link below

Here

With those weekly ideas I’m trying to highlight names with option flow you can hold longer term and Uber was $60 at the time and today it is near $78 a 30% move up after announcing a large buyback this morning. Congratulations to all who played, I would start to consider trimming this position after such a rapid move up, longer term UBER is a forever hold.

NU- Back in the 1/30 Recap I noted a monster risk reversal on NU when it was below $9. Here we are 2 weeks later and it is up 4.5% today to 10.37. A 20% move up in 2 weeks. This was a really notable trade because of the size in such a name that doesn’t see that kind of activity.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Below is today’s link to the database, as always it expires tomorrow at the opening bell. I will have the rest of today’s trades added by the afternoon.