2/15 Recap

Pretty slow session with monthly OPEX coming tomorrow. We got a nice breadth move today where everything but the megacap tech names went up. The SPY is back over the 8 ema and the unstoppable rally has moved forward for another day. The resilience we keep showing is notable, the buyers jump at every move down but you can see the bearish divergence below.

Then there was a huge warning sign today, Apple, the 2nd biggest component in our markets broke its 200 day average today. Yesterday was got news Warren Buffett was trimming his Apple stake in small quantities but the market wasn’t happy and Apple finally broke down. Then we had Google which sold off 4% on news that OpenAI was potentially coming after their search dominance. The issue with Google isn’t whether it is a good company or not, it is about will their future cash flows be at risk. The market hates question marks and now the main business at Google, search, has those question marks. So 2 of the 4 biggest companies in our market now have some warning signs going off…..

Here is the Apple chart, you can see the 3 clear lower highs and the breakdown. The bigger concern here is how long does Apple stay below the 200? We’ve all known the numbers were bad for a year now and lower prices are actually a good thing for Apple because they now buyback more stock with each passing quarter but it weighs on the market when such a heavily weighted component keeps being weak.

Yields pulled back a little with the TNX briefly dipping below 42 but are bouncing off the 8 day right now, stock bulls would like to see yields break down again but it seems like they’re just finding support for another move higher which would not be good for equities.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it expires at the market open tomorrow and the rest of today’s action will be added there later today if you check the app for updated trends and options trades.