2/15 Recap. The Market Continues To Levitate.

What did I tell you the other day before CPI? The flows were just not bearish, people were loading calls without an ounce of fear at all. Tomorrow we get PPI, but at this point I don’t know what it will matter considering every data point continues to miss and equities continue to slowly rise. We had a company like TTD this morning report income basically inline with their SBC and it jumped 30%. UPST had an awful quarter and it too was up 25%, this feels a lot like the mania we saw in 2020 and 2021. The only difference is we have a 5% FFR today and it was 0 then. These things shouldn’t be happening but they are. Odd times. This run has to nearing an end short term with the TLT breaking down, but who knows anymore, nothing seems to matter anymore. I don’t even know what to say anymore as I’m up 32% now in 6 weeks to start the year, strictly selling puts, that is not normal at all. I seemingly can’t miss anything with my trade of the week PANW up another 4% today, all of this is giving me a very bad feeling going forward, markets are not this easy.

SPY

This was weak again today, lagging tech, mostly due to the oil names, but it is breaking out, I don’t know what else to say, you can see it in the chart below. It is clearly over the short term moving averages and in a position of strength for now.

IWM

This put in a bullish engulfing candle today, that’s not bearish at all. Small caps were lagging this whole past week or so and now they look like they’re in the drivers seat again. Incredibly resilience here.

TLT

This is what I mentioned above that concerns me. The TLT breaking down is typically bearish for equities, you can see the clear trend break, but this time it’s different I’m told and the rally marches on. Keep your eye on this.

Dollar

Also bearish for equities is this continued strength in the dollar, or should I say, “should be bearish but is not”. Something is lying here, whether it is the dollar and bonds or stocks, one of these isn’t telling the truth and we will find out soon enough.

Today’s Unusual Trades & What Stood Out