2/15/26 Best Idea For The Week Ahead

The big story last week was the QQQ closing under the 21 week on friday, this had not done that since early 2025. This is typically a trend shift, now can it snapback next week? Absolutely, but until it reclaims that 21 week, you have to not try to be a hero and just focus less on tech unless you’re trying to pick a bottom. I promise it is much easier to let the charts show you went tech has bottomed and when you get that capitulation volume and then a reclaim of the 21 week, before going long again. Look it doesn’t a genius to see that all the megacaps are getting sold hard, even something like NVDA is acting weird because all the semis are actually trading well with the SMH up 5% in the last month while NVDA is red. It doesn’t have to make sense and the names are fine long term, but if you’re trying to be a trader then you want to focus on strength and tech is just not where it is at for now.

The MAGS etf which is just the Mag 7 names is sitting on the 200 day, that is the perfect spot to go long if you want because you just use a very tight stop and close the trade if it closes below the 200 day.

So what now? Well you’ve got bonds looking great, you’ve got energy looking great, and materials too. Historically speaking, when those 3 are looking good, the market does not do well. Why? Because the majority of the market is tech, but breadth is expanding right now, remember how the last few years people kept screaming breadth wasn’t good, well breadth is great right now, more names are participating, unfortunately most of the names participating are just not names in the sectors the majority of investors at home like trading. We’ve just had 3 straight years of double digit returns in the market, if tech takes a breather for a while, it will be ok, these other names have underperformed for years and nobody cared. Are the valuations silly on some of these? Sure, but valuations don’t really matter, we’re here to buy what is being bought.

This weeks best idea is another unsexy name that just has a nice chart and 2 pretty large put sales put on this month just a few days before earnings. I’m going to go over some recent trades on it and discuss some ways to play it including a very complex condor if you think it has run hot and want to play it cooling off.