2/20 Recap

We opened the day with good news out of Walmart with it rising over 5% at one point. One of the big worries for economists has been how the bottom half of society is doing and Walmart put and end to that today in my opinion. They had a very solid quarter and all those consumer fears should be over. Of course some will say it has just been delayed, but they always say that, the reality is we are a consumer driven economy and consumers are consuming still.

Tech on the otherhand was a slaughterhouse today. NVDA and SMCI led the way down and those have been the hottest names all year. NVDA reports tomorrow and it seems like a few players wanted out before that sending it down over 6%. These tech names trade in smaller tandems than you think. The XLK is where Apple and Microsoft are heavy weights, the XLC is where GOOG and META are, and the XLY is where AMZN and TSLA are. Today for instance Amazon would have probably been up with Costco off the Walmart print but with Tesla down 5% it got pulled down in the XLY. Names diverge slowly and Amazon has over the last 6 months as Tesla has collapsed but overall that’s why you see some pairings stronger than others.

This move down today was what I was alluding to over the weekend when I posted the SPY short as my best idea for this week. That candle last week seemed like a reversal, now we haven’t broken any key levels but after that run we just had for 4 months, a few weeks of weakness seems normal so names can cool off and reset. In the megcap space Apple, Microsoft and Google have already broken the 21 ema, clear signs of weakness. Meta is the strongest still holding the 8 ema and Amazon is right over the 21 ema, both still have strength.

The SPY is approaching the 21 ema, again we have spent 1 or 2 days below this in the last 4 months, we have not broken it yet so all is still fine, the decision on this likely comes after NVDA tomorrow. If we lose that, the next stop is probably a slow move down to the 50 day just over 480 now and rising.

Recent Trades

DFS got acquired by COF yesterday, I checked the database to see if there was any odd action and sure enough there was only 1 trade back in the 1/22 recap where someone bought 1500 calls expiring in March at 110. DFS is over 126 right now, those paid out a couple hundred percent.

Trends

1 Week

2 Week

1 Month

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, as always it expires at the open tomorrow and I will add the rest of today’s trades in by tonight so check back for all the updated trades and trends.