The Running Of The Bulltards

The Running Of The Bulltards

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The Running Of The Bulltards
The Running Of The Bulltards
2/21/25 Recap

2/21/25 Recap

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James Bulltard
Feb 21, 2025
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The Running Of The Bulltards
The Running Of The Bulltards
2/21/25 Recap
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The SPY isn’t looking so hot right now. We broke the 8 ema today and are ontop of the 21 ema. If we lose that then we’re looking at a bearish trend. The good news for bulls is that 50 day is right below at 600 and so there is alot of support in this range. Until we lose that 100 day, the white line sloping up over 590, I wouldn’t get too worried as a bull, but if and when bears can push this below that 100 day, that is when you have to begin worrying. Overall I still maintain this year will mostly be flat/down as I’ve said for the last 2 months. This action isn’t surprising, we have alot to digest and the economic data continues to come in poorly.

The one name I’d pay attention to for bulls is META, I mentioned this a couple days back, but META really needs to hold this 21 ema that it is breaking under right now. This was clearly the leader of the market all year and in 4 days it has shed $50 and it could breaking its uptrend today. A close below this 21 ema would confirm that and that sits $3 higher at $692. If META loses that, it opens the door to the 50 day near 650 and that is probably where you want to be selling puts because this market is not going higher this year without META leading the way.

Recent Trades

2 to discuss today both from yesterday’s recap that worked really quick

BILI - I flagged 3 odd lots on this one and this morning it gapped up and is now up 7% after a solid ER. I think the most important take away here is when you see a large put sale like the next week 22 puts hours before earnings, those are the ones you really want to pay attention to because nobody is selling puts to take assignment of 590,000 shares of BILI right before it tanks on a bad print. On the spectrum of odd trades, pre earnings put sales are right at the top with small cap biotech put sales. They’re just trades the player has to nail or they’re unemployed for putting it on, so note them.

CCJ - the last 2 days we saw those 2 monster blocks of CCJ puts bought, right after the market opened it moved down nearly 5% quick. That was impeccable timing by whoever bought those big blocks.

My Open Book

I am slightly green on the day with markets deeply red, considering the leverage I have on for now, I’m thrilled. That massive TLT position I took 2 weeks back is really doing its job as my hedge because without, my short puts are getting hit today. Of course they’re nowhere near risk of assignment, but the time value is adjusted in the short term. My TLT position may possibly get called today at 89.50. If I’m called there, it is fine, I will turn around and sell puts on monday. If I’m not called, great, I will sell calls 2 weeks out on monday and try to collect that premium and the dividend at the beginning of March. Either way, I’ve sold covered calls on this trade for 2 weeks now since entering, reduced my basis by maybe .30 or more. I didn’t place any new trades today, I have some short puts rolling off today and we will see where things are monday. I still maintain my stance that I don’t like where equities are, the data is poor, and I’m simply going to play my book with leverage looking for flat to down.

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