2/25/25 Recap

The SPY is losing the 100 day right now, lot of time left in the session but we have not closed below the 100 day since August. So this is a major trend shift if it holds, a couple weeks back we went under it but came out just over it. A close here opens the door to the 200 day which is at 570 and sloping up. There’s not much to say, this is what I was alluding to in the weekend best idea post of the market not looking good and TLT/XLP being the play. That trade is going well because XLP is up 1.5% today and TLT is very strong as well.

The weekly chart is even more ominous with the SPY right ontop of the 21 ema weekly, a level it has not closed below since late 2023. Bulls need a big bounce here or major issues lie ahead, NVDA tomorrow will likely decide everyone’s fate. Tech stocks in general remain the big drag in our markets.

Recent Trades

HD - In yesterday’s recap I flagged the massive put sale on Home Depot at 350 in April, those puts collapsed from 4.50 to 1.80 right now in 1 session after a nice move up post earnings. This is a defensive name but anytime your short puts are up over 50% in a day, you should probably think about closing them up, but these do likely expire worthless so if the margin isn’t a bother to you, then hold on another 45 days.

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