2/26/26 Recap
The SPY is holding up over the 8 ema so far today and the carnage is contained to tech after the bad reaction to the NVDA report. NVDA did everything right and still sold off, that is just the tape we’re in where tech is not loved. The VIX is remaining elevated which is causing havoc in options and alot of that has to do with the constant back and forth on Iran. Yesterday war stocks were down, today war is possibly on the table. The one thing the market hates is uncertainty and it is getting a big dose of it right now. The 100 day just over 680 has been strong support recently and until that breaks down you have to think it will be again if it comes to it.
The QQQ is where the issues have been for weeks, yesterday was the first close over the 21 ema in 3 weeks and it was promptly followed up by a move down after the NVDA print. If you notice, NVDA has gone sideways for 6+ months and so has the market, the market mimics its largest component. It looks a little toppy if we’re being honest with ourselves but its hard to be bearish when tech is trading cheaper than materials or industrials on a multiple basis. Will more weakness persist? Probably because that’s what weak charts foretell but expensive is not the problem with the Nasdaq right now as the top 6 names which comprise almost 40% of the QQQ are all relatively inexpensive for the numbers they’re posting. The major questions remain on when all this capex will show a meaningful return and for now investors are ignoring these names.
Top Gainers From Yesterday’s Recap
My Open Book
Trades I Made
