2/27/25 Recap

The SPY had 2 big moves down intraday, first the consumer sentiment number was not good and then we got a headline about reciprocal tariffs from Trump. You can see below the matter of higher lows continues and we’re back below the 8 ema. I think the reality of this market in 2025 is you’re going to have tapebombs coming from Trump we’ve known that from his first term, but I just don’t see much upside for a while now. The megacaps have all reported ex NVDA and they all had the same story to tell, capex is rising dramatically for AI, everyone is guiding up. META,GOOG,MSFT all raised capex guidance before Amazon reported. Then Amazon, who already had the highest capex on the street, guided up 30% last night and the market is just not going to reward these names until it either sees a return on the capex or the capex itself slows down. So I think realistically the next 6-12 months are going to be won by the put sellers in this market. If we go flat to down, that is who wins, the upside should be fairly limited in the overall market if all the megacaps are going to be weak considering their weighting.

Recent Trades

TPB - In the 1/27 recap here I highlighted TPB calls with the name just under $60. This is up another 3% premarket going over $69 and this trade below has seen the December $70 calls go from $7.80 to $12+ in 2 weeks, insane return on basically leaps in such a short timeframe.

My Open Book

The only thing I did today close that RCAT trade from yesterday, I woke up, this thing was up nearly 5% in less than 24 hours, of course I sold it. It ended up reversing to red, these names are not good and it honestly would not shock me if that trade yesterday was from someone who knew Chamath was going to tweet last night pumping the drones. This was the tweet he dropped at 10 pm last night firing up drone stocks today. We’re just in a world where these guys can move names, look at Ackman tweeting minutes ago that he has a big UBER stake and what happened after.

Anyhow aside from that, all my META trades roll off today, so next week I will be free to do whatever again. The shares I was assigned last friday at 689.60 are going to be called away at a total of $708.70. All the short puts I sold for this week at the 8 ema and rising will expire worthless. The AMZN call spread stings a little today but nothing I’m really worried about as I’m still up over 150% on it. It’s $229.xx and probably weak for a little now but I’m still looking at a call spread worth $47.xx that has another $33 to its max value a mere $20 higher with 17 months to do it. Even if AMZN ended right here in Jun 2026, the call spread would be worth 30% more at $59.xx.

Today’s Unusual Options Activity

Here is today’s link to the database, it will be open until monday morning open.